Film critic makes best guesses for the Oscars

The Academy Awards for the film obsessed like me are as important and exciting as the Super Bowl is to football fans.

Each year, the film community eagerly awaits the nominees, which are announced in the wee hours of the morning in January, almost always to the disappointing grunts of those left off the list.

In my opinion, 2011 was a spectacular year for film. As one of the more crankier critics, I rarely give out anything above a B+; however, I found 12 films worthy of an A last year. Unfortunately, most of those well-reviewed, highly praised films were snubbed by the Oscars.

This year, more than I can remember, the Oscar voters nominated films that carried a positive message or were family friendly, turning away from edgy, thought-provoking and more artistic films we critics live for. Films like “Drive,” “Take Shelter,” “Win Win,” “Shame,” “J Edgar” and “Carnage” were unacknowledged.

In more recent years, the Academy has come under fire from the majority of the people actually watching movies when their favorite films are continually ignored. After “The Dark Knight” was snubbed for best picture and director, loads of voices complained, and Oscar listened by changing how many films could be nominated for best picture.

Even with the best of 2011 absent from this year’s race, there are many great films to root for; most of them, unfortunately, cannot and will not win. I have been predicting the Oscars for more than 10 years, and while my predictions are not always correct, they do come with explanation, research, science and mathematics.

The silent, black and white film “The Artist” looks poised to take the top honors, but in a year with no real front-runner, or at least not a single film everyone is rooting for, there is plenty of room for surprises. However, my rule of thumb is the most obvious choice to win usually is the best bet.

“The Artist” likely will take best picture, with “Hugo” it’s only real competition. Most of the time, the film with the most nominations will win; “Hugo” has 11 but didn’t fare well at the box office and doesn’t have an acting nomination, which usually is another qualifier.

For best director, the obvious choice is “The Artist’s” Michel Hazanavicius, who won the Director’s Guild of America; this almost always matches up. American legend Martin Scorsese (“Hugo”) is the only alternate possibility.

The acting categories seem the most predictable this year, especially if you pay attention the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild and British Academy of Film and Television Arts winners.

Best actress is a two-horse race between Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”), who is gunning for that third Oscar, while Viola Davis, who won the SAG award, should and, I believe, will win for her more emotional and beloved performance in “The Help,” which also is nominated for best picture.

If Octavia Spencer (“The Help”) wins in supporting actress, and I believe she will, it will be the first time in Oscar history two black women have won acting Oscars.

Best actor is where we might see the evening’s biggest upset. Jean Dujardin has won the Globe and SAG for his silent performance in “The Artist,” while George Clooney (“The Descendants”) gives the most important performance of his career and also won at the Globes. I even think there is an outside chance (like in 2002 when Adrien Brody won for “The Pianist”) that Damien Bachir (“A Better Life”) or even Brad Pitt (“Moneyball”) could win here.

Eighty-two-year-old Christopher Plummer will win supporting actor for his performance in “Beginners.”

The rest of the categories are less predictable. In the two writing categories, adapted and original screenplays, we might very likely see upsets. Adapted screenplay likely will go to “The Descendants,” which was once the best picture front-runner. If and when Clooney loses best actor, this might be “The Descendants’” only chance at an Oscar.

“Moneyball” is the only real dark horse in adapted screenplay.

For original screenplay, you could make an argument for any of the nominees, while Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris” has won most of the precursor awards, “The Artist,” if it becomes a sweep, easily could nab this.

Foreign film nominee “A Separation,” in my opinion, is the strongest of the nominees; however, even “Bridesmaids” could pull a surprise here. With so much love for “Midnight in Paris,” I think this would be its single win.

“Rise of the Planet of the Apes” will take the visual effects Oscar.

In the two sound categories, I am predicting “Hugo” for sound mixing and “Transformers” for sound editing.

Original song will go to “Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets,” while best original score will go to “The Artist.”

“The Iron Lady” will win best makeup for making Streep appear realistically aged, and the best costume Oscar is another category difficult to predict. I am picking “Hugo.” However, I think “Jane Eyre” or “Anonymous” could win this.

The three most important technical awards — cinematography, art direction and editing — will give the best answer to the question of who will win best picture early in the telecast. Cinematography should, and I believe will, go to Texas film “The Tree of Life,” while “Hugo” will walk away with art direction.

Editing almost always matches up with best picture because of the importance of how a film is edited, and if “The Artist” is winning best picture, it will win editing.

Dustin Chase is a film critic and associate editor with Texas Art & Film, which is based in Galveston. More reviews are available at texasartfilm.com.

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At A Glance

WHAT: 84th Academy Awards

WHEN: 6 p.m. today

TV: ABC

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Nominations List

Actor in a Leading Role

• Demián Bichir in “A Better Life”

• George Clooney in “The Descendants”

• Jean Dujardin in “The Artist”

• Gary Oldman in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”

• Brad Pitt in “Moneyball”

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Actor in a Supporting Role

• Kenneth Branagh in “My Week with Marilyn”

• Jonah Hill in “Moneyball”

• Nick Nolte in “Warrior”

• Christopher Plummer in “Beginners”

• Max von Sydow in “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

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Actress in a Leading Role

• Glenn Close in “Albert Nobbs”

• Viola Davis in “The Help”

• Rooney Mara in “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”

• Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady”

• Michelle Williams in “My Week with Marilyn”

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Actress in a Supporting Role

• Bérénice Bejo in “The Artist”

• Jessica Chastain in “The Help”

• Melissa McCarthy in “Bridesmaids”

• Janet McTeer in “Albert Nobbs”

• Octavia Spencer in “The Help”

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Best Picture

• “The Artist,” Thomas Langmann, producer

• “The Descendants,” Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, producers

• “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close,” Scott Rudin, producer

• “The Help,” Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, producers

• “Hugo,” Graham King and Martin Scorsese, producers

• “Midnight in Paris,” Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, producers

• “Moneyball,” Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, producers

• “The Tree of Life,” Sarah Green, Bill Pohlad, Dede Gardner and Grant Hill, producers

• “War Horse,” Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, producers

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Online

For a complete list of nominees, visit www.oscars.org.

For more on Dustin Chase’s predictions, visit texasartfilm.com.