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Don’t focus on the category; focus on the risk
By T.J. Aulds
The Daily News
Published May 27, 2009
Officially, Hurricane Ike was a Category 2 hurricane. But it packed a storm surge that in the past would have been associated with a Category 4 storm.
One of the biggest lessons learned from Ike was that the use of the Saffir-Simpson scale as the primary measure for a hurricane’s strength was inadequate and didn’t tell the entire story.
While the Saffir-Simpson scale focuses on a storm’s wind speed, it does little in way of gauging for residents along the coast what threat a storm surge will be to the area.
Because Ike was a Category 2 storm, many residents didn’t evacuate because the storm was not perceived as a major threat.
By the time many in Galveston County who didn’t leave saw that the storm surge was worst than expected, it was too late.
“Storm surge has always been there in the forecasts, we are just going to make sure if it’s going to be a major element we are going to make sure it will be headlined,” Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office Chief Meterologist Gene Hafele said. “We did not do a good enough job (during Ike) making sure information got out to the media how serious the storm surge was.”
In the future, more emphasis will be placed on the hazards of an approaching storm, Hafele said.
At a hurricane conference in Florida, Hafele suggested that the Saffir-Simpson scale be replaced, but that won’t be happening anytime soon.
Gene Norman, the chief meteorologist for KHOU-TV, said Ike has probably taught forecasters and residents alike that hurricanes are “never just one number.”
“This year, we will do better on breaking down the three threats — wind, rain and storm surge,” Norman said. “Unfortunately, the Samfir-Simpson scale, which is based on wind became the catchall number.”
He said emphasis by the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and broadcasters like him will be less about the category of a storm and more on what is expected from the storm.
“There will be more emphasis on the hazards, whatever it may be,” Hafele said. “We are not necessarily going to say it’s the wind or the storm surge. It will be what the risk will be.”
That modified forecast that will be more of a mix of information instead of a single number, will be tested for the first time this hurricane season.
Hafele and Norman’s suggestion to residents is to not listen for a number but for what the risk factor for their community will be.
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