UPDATE: SUNDAY (5/20):Alberto continues to spin in the Atlantic off the South Carolina coast as the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season gets off to an early start. The storm, with sustained winds of 50-mph, is moving slowly west-southwest at 6-mph, but is expected to re-curve to the northeast over the coming 24-48 hours. At 8 am, EDT, Alberto was centered near 31.7 N and 79.3 W, or about 95 miles south-southeast of Charleston,

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season got off to an early start today, as Tropical Storm Alberto formed from a non-tropical low off the coast of South Carolina. The storm, with sustained winds of 45-mph, is moving slowly southwest, but is expected to re-curve to the northeast over the coming 24-48 hours.

At 5 pm, EDT, Alberto was centered near 32.2 N and 77.7 W, or about 140 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Sustained winds were at 45-mph and central barometric pressure was 1007 MB (29.74").

Alberto becomes the earliest named storm in the Atlantic since Ana formed in April, 2003. A sub-tropical storm, named Andrea formed in May, 2007, but it never became a fully tropical system.

Below are links related to Alberto:

Alberto Satellite View

Official Forecast Track Projection

Alberto Track Model Array

High pressure aloft and at the surface will ensure a continuation of the warm, sunny weather we are currently seeing. Since these patterns can be quite persistent, the question is how long will this spell last?

Based on current forecast trends, it appears that our placid May weather will continue at least a week. There may be a slight chance for thundershowers late Monday or Tuesday as an upper-level system tracks across the region, but the odds are that this rain will stay well north of Galveston County.

Looking even further down the road, we do not see much chance of rain until the following week (week of May 29-June 3) when an influx of deeper tropical moisture may occur. While some long-term models suggest possible development in the northwest Caribbean or Bay of Campeche down the road, strong wind shear is expected to continue over the Gulf of Mexico and I do not see this as much of a threat at this time. Generally the weather pattern is such that any changes to our current weather are likely to be fairly gradual.

So, given the warm, sunny weather, I think it is best just to take advantage of this interlude and use it as an opportunity to enjoy the outdoors before the real heat of summer sets in!

Below are a few links related to this blog:

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Surface Forecast Map in Seven Days

Long-term Tropical Hazards Map

Although the timing was a little off, last Friday and Saturday's rains certainly matched expectations. Official rainfall amounts over the period ranged from 7.62" at the National Weather Service Office in League City/Dickinson to 2.96" at Scholes Field in Galveston.

Cocorahs observers reported a high of 9.14" about a mile northwest of the National Weather Office in League City and 3.64" in the center of Galveston. Generally amounts were in excess of 7" through much of the northern part of the County.

The rain couldn't have come at a better time, as soil conditions were beginning to dry out noticeably over the region. The good news is that we may even receive more rain late Monday through early Wednesday as an upper-level system moves through Texas. The big question is whether moisture levels will return to high enough levels to support widespread rainfall.

Speaking of weather systems, some models are calling for a tropical system to develop in the western Caribbean Sea by the middle to later part of next week as a low pressure trough develops in the area. While this is a little early for tropical storm formation, May systems are not unheard of in the Tropical Atlantic Basin. This fits with my feeling that our season may get off to an early start in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (see blog: "Thinking about the rain and other matters"-April 4, 2012). Fortunately, upper-level winds to the north of the system, if it develops, will be quite unfavorable for much development. Nevertheless, this possibility should remind us to prepare for the coming hurricane season now.

Finally, we may soon see the first named storm in the eastern Pacific season as a low pressure center southwest of Mexico is given an 80% chance this morning of developing into a tropical cyclone.

Below are some links related to this blog:


Tuesday Precipitation Outlook

Tuesday Surface Forecast Map

Mid-week Surface Forecast Map

Wind Shear Outlook for the Tropics

As forecast, thunderstorms rumbled across Galveston County early this morning, accompanied by brilliant lightning and gusty winds. Rainfall amounts on the mainland ranged from 2.61" in the extreme northeast part of the County, to 1.56" in west League City and 0.71" in Friendswood. On the Island, precipitation totals ranged from 0.82" at Scholes Field west of 61st street to 0.95" in the central and eastern part of the city.

Although the squall line and thunderstorm cluster has moved east of the area and some dry air is flowing in aloft over the region, another round of storms seems likely this afternoon or evening as upper-level energy flows around the south side of the upper-low. Some rains could linger into Saturday, with partly cloudy skies likely for Sunday.

Overall, the rains were needed across the County after a relatively dry spell that extended from mid-April.

Below are some links related to today's blog:

Texas Radar Loop

Current Upper-level Map

12-hour Forecast Map

UPDATE: 4:00 pm Thursday: A Flash Flood Watch has been issued by the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service for Galveston County from 1 am Friday morning through Friday afternoon. The noon GFS model run called for a total of 4.09" of rain in Galveston between later today when the first rains move into the area until Saturday when they track off to the east.


A frontal boundary, a potent upper-level low now west of the Big Bend and a possible trough along the lower-Texas coast could bring heavy rains, and possibly even severe thunderstorms, to Galveston and southeast Texas from late Thursday into early Saturday.

Models differ somewhat on the track of the upper-level low as it heads east into Texas, so it is difficult pinpoint exactly what locations will be at most risk for excessive rain and/or severe storm activity. Nevertheless, the models are in fairly good agreement with the potential for substantial rainfall over large parts of south and southeast Texas as we end the week and move into the weekend.

As it is, after a brief respite from yesterday's rains, an increasingly unstable atmosphere will develop during the day tomorrow into Friday. The latest GFS model run (at noon) suggests that Galveston Island could receive 3.58" of rain from sometime on Friday into early Saturday.

Given the expected scenario, I would not be totally surprised to see the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service Office issue flood or severe weather watches by sometime on Thursday for much, if not all, of the greater Houston-Galveston area. In other words, take advantage of the break in the weather today, if you have any outdoor plans, because conditions will become increasingly unfavorable for them over the coming 72-hours!

Below are some links related to this blog:

Current Upper-level Map

Friday Precipitation Outlook

Saturday Precipitation Outlook

Storm Prediction Center Outlook

Current Texas Radar Loop

Galveston County has now gone 16 consecutive days without measurable rainfall. While that may not be much of a problem during the winter, it becomes increasingly problematic as we move into time of year when heat and long hours of sunlight lead to increased evaporation rates and drier soil conditons. Certainly, we do not want to see a repeat of last summer when only 2.54" of rain was recorded in Galveston during the 123 days between May 1 and August 31 (El Paso's normal rainfall for that same period is 3.91").

During much of this dry spell, an upper-level high pressure system and a strong cap (layer of warm air at the intermediate levels of the atmosphere) have kept rain well away from the upper-Texas coast. Fortunately, there are signs that we will be reverting back to a wetter pattern.

First. a Pacific cool front will push southeast through Texas during the middle of this week, reaching the upper-Texas coast on Wednesday. There will be a chance of showers or thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Next, a deep trough and upper-level low will move east across Texas from late Thursday to Saturday. This will create an unstable atmosphere and set the stage for additional thunderstorm activity on Friday and possibly Saturday. The latest models suggest anywhere from 1-3" of rain with this system, with the heaviest rains being close to the coast. Finally, the longer-term forecasts are calling for additional rains later next week.

If all this pans out, then we may move into the later part of May with fairly good soil moisture. At any rate, it will definitely be good if we can avoid duplicating last year's drought.

Below are some links related to this article:

Mid-week surface weather map

Mid-week rainfall outlook

Late week rainfall outlook

Upper-level forecast map for later this week

6-10 day precipitation outlook

The Climate Prediction Center declared on Thursday that the La Niña pattern of the past two years had disappeared in April. We are currently in a pattern that is known as ENSO Neutral, in which sea surface temperatures are running near normal in most of the Pacific.

Quoting from the Climate Prediction Center's report: "Consistent with the demise of La Niña, enhanced trade winds and reduced convection over the central equatorial Pacific were much weakened during April, and the area of enhanced convection that had previously dominated the western Pacific and Indonesia became disorganized. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicate a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions".

What this may mean in terms of precipitation and tropical activity this summer is less certain. While La Niña years usually are dry over Texas and the south (about 1 in 4 is atypical, as we saw this winter) and El Niño years are often wet, ENSO-neutral years tend to vary widely in this respect.

The same pattern holds true for tropical activity with La Niña years tending to be active in the Tropical Atlantic Basin and El Niño years less so. Again, ENSO-neutral years can vary widely. Historically, this factor seems to be less important, however, with respect to the Gulf of Mexico.

At the present time, many models are calling for ENSO-neutral conditions to prevail through the summer, though about half of the models are hinting at the emergence of an El Niño pattern by late summer. This has influenced early hurricane season forecasts (see link below) with lower than average tropical storm activity expected this season.

Locally, long-term forecasts are calling for warmer than normal temperatures through the summer and early fall, but with near normal precipitation for that period. This would be good, as the current dry trend is beginning to deplete some of the soil moisture we gained from a wet winter and early spring. Fortunately, it appears as though we may see near to slightly above rainfall over the coming two weeks or so.

At any rate, the La Niña pattern is not expected to re-emerge anytime soon and that is good news for those parts of Texas still needing rainfall.

Below are links related to this blog:

Latest ENSO Advisory

Current Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Tropical Season Forecast

June-August Weather Outlook

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

After a very wet February and March, which brought 12.28" of rain to Galveston, April's total precipitation of 1.99" gave the Island its driest month since September, 2011. The total recorded at Scholes Field was 1.06" less than would be expected for the month. League City fared better, however, with its 4.19" total registering 0.88" above normal. It was still the driest month there since there since December, 2011.

On the other hand, the warm spell continued unabated across the County. In Galveston, the average monthly temperature was 74.9 degrees, which is 4.8 degrees above normal for the month. It also marked the 14th consecutive month with an above normal monthly temperature average. I checked back 50 years and could not find any longer spell of warmer than average temperatures, though the Isle did experience a 12-month warmer than normal spell from November, 1999 through October, 2000. League City, likewise, has gone 14 consecutive months with above normal monthly temperature averages....though October, 2011 was just 0.1 degree above established means.

So where does that leave us?

There are some indications that we could return to near normal and even below normal temperatures over the coming two weeks or so. At least that is what the Climate Prediction Center is projecting. Also, rainfall may be near to slightly below normal for that same period. The latest GFS 16-day model run is suggesting fairly substantial rain for the third week of May. Still, I would not put too much stock in a forecast that far out. Some models are hinting that we could get some precipitation this coming weekend, though the GFS does not agree.

At any rate, given the above normal warmth and the ten consecutive days with no measurable precipitation, conditions could dry fairly quickly if we do not get some rain soon. Although the outlook for May through July calls for warmer than normal temperatures, it does call for near normal precipitation. In any case, it would be nice to avoid slipping back into drought conditions!

Below are some links related to this blog:

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook

May-July Weather Outlook

With six more days left in April and the prospects for significant rain looking fairly modest for the foreseeable future, the question is: are we headed back to a drier pattern?

If Galveston gets no rain between now and midnight on Monday, the city will finish the month with 1.99" of rain, which is 1.06" less than the 30-year mean for the month. This will make it the driest month since September, 2011 when 1.70" of rain was recorded. League City, with 4.01" for the month is faring somewhat better. That total is slightly above the monthly average of 3.99" for that location. Still, it will be the driest month there since December.

Thanks to six months of fairly decent rainfall, this is hardly cause for panic. Soil moisture is still good. Mid to late spring is notorious for prolonged rain free periods, however. Certainly, we do not wish to head into the hot days of summer with a dry spell in place.

Currently, the 16-day GFS model run suggests that Galveston will receive only 0.37" of precipitation between now and May 11. If that is the case, then conditions will be noticeably drier by mid-May, though still not desperate by any means. The Climate Prediction Centers longer term outlooks have trended towards a drier scenario as well. Their monthly outlook for the entire month of May, however, still suggests near normal rainfall for our area.

Fortunately, longer term forecasts tend to be somewhat speculative and we could be looking at an entirely different situation a week from now. Still, given the dry springs over the last few years, this is a trend that bears watching.

Below are links to some sites related to this topic:

6-10 Precipitation Outlook

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

May Weather Outlook

Yesterday, a wind gust front roared through Galveston, damaging trees and signs and sending many people, including my wife, scurrying for shelter. An ominous roll cloud, racing along with the gust front, caused many to fear a tornado as winds, measured at 45-mph sustained and 53-mph gusts at Scholes Field, raked the Island.

Despite the ferocity of the winds and the brilliant display of lightning, rainfall was relatively modest with the accompanying squall line. The National Weather Service Office in League City reported 0.63", while 0.65" was measured in Texas City, 0.40" at Scholes Field and 0.48" on the East End of Galveston.

Since the storm, a number of people asked me exactly what caused the rather dramatic weather. The main culprit was the wind shift line ahead of the thunderstorms, called alternately a "wind gust front" or an "outflow boundary", with the former most often used with a line of thunderstorms (or squall line) and the later frequently used with an isolated thunderstorm or small cluster of thunderstorms.

During thunderstorms, the downward force of the falling rain creates a cool, strong, sinking wind. As this rush of air reaches the ground, it races outward ahead of the storm. Someone located ahead of the storm will experience a strong blast of cold air preceding the thunderstorm...the wind gust front.

Fortunately, high pressure building in behind last night's cold front will bring us several days of near ideal (if not a little chilly for April) weather with sunshine and no rain expected for at least the next five days.

Below are some links explaining gust fronts and outflow boundaries as well as a map depicting yesterday's precipitation amounts over Texas:

Gust Fronts and Outflows

Outflow Boundaries Defined

Outflow Boundaries Image

Precipitation Map

UPDATE: 5:30 pm-Although I do not have all the data at this time, Scholes Field had wind gusts of at least 53-mph when the gust front blew through ahead of the thunderstorms this afternoon. That gave Galveston its strongest wind gust since April, 2010 when a peak wind gust of 69-mph was recorded. Reports from around the County suggest winds of 50-60 mph were common when the squall line first moved through the area.


A fairly robust spring cold front will bring gusty winds and much cooler weather to the local area for the weekend. The front, which may be preceded by a line of thunderstorms this afternoon or evening, should result in morning lows in the 50's across most of the County for Saturday and Sunday morning and could bring winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts from later tonight through Saturday.

The possible thunderstorm activity and post-frontal winds have lead to the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Small Craft Advisory for offshore and Bay waters and a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the County (see links below), as severe thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. The main impediment to much rain and to severe storm activity near the coast will be a strong upper-level cap (layer of warm, stable air aloft). If the cap erodes or uplift increases sufficiently for the cap to be overcome, then storm activity will become more likely. At the present time, rainfall probabilities are running at 50%.

In the longer run, northwest winds aloft should keep conditions dry here through much, if not all of next week. Beyond that, some models are suggesting a return to a slightly wetter pattern as we move into May.

Below are some links relevant to this blog:

Texas Radar Loop

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Small Craft Advisory

Hazardous Weather Outlook

The thunderstorms that rumbled across Galveston County yesterday dropped amounts of rain from 3.02" west of League City to 1-2" in Friendswood and Texas City and 0.97" at Scholes Field in west Galveston. Around 0.43" fell over the eastern half of the city.

The storms also signaled an interruption in a warmer than normal cycle that had this month on track to be the second warmest April ever in Galveston. This was in keeping with the trend this year, which has brought the warmest January 1 through April 15 period ever to the County.

The air felt muggy and unseasonably warm this weekend, even with the winds gusting to 31-mph. So a cooling trend would be more than welcome. The good news is that cool to mild conditions should mostly prevail through the middle to later part of next week. Though we may see a warm-up Thursday and Friday, an approaching cold front and upper-level low will bring a chance of rain again as we finish the week and move into the weekend. Even better, a decent cold front should push through the County this weekend, bringing low temperatures in the 50's to the mainland. Long-term forecasts suggest that a reinforcing push of cool, dry air might even keep the pleasant spring weather around longer.

While some people I know love the warm weather no matter what time of year, I am of the opinion that we will have more than our share of heat before the summer is finished, so I am in no hurry to get there!

Below are some links to the weather outlook over the coming few days:

Day 2 Precipitation Outlook

Day 3 Upper-level Forecast Map

Friday Surface Forecast Map

Day 3 Low Temperature Outlook

Day 4 Low Temperature Outlook

April is the windiest month in Galveston County with a 12.1 mph average wind speed on Galveston Island. So far, April, 2012 has been anything but windy with a relatively modest 9.3 mph wind speed to date.

This should change this weekend with winds expected to run 15-25 mph along the coast and 10-20 mph inland. The uptick in the wind speeds is the first sign of an approaching storm system that could bring 1-3" of rain to the County by late Sunday and Monday. This will be good, since the area has now gone 8 consecutive days without any measurable rain and 10 days since the last substantial rain.

The culprit, as has often been the case this year, is a deep upper-level low pressure trough and cold front expected to shift east into Texas by Sunday and Monday. With some models showing the front slowing down near the coast, the stage may be set for substantial rainfall on Monday, followed by drier and somewhat cooler weather by the middle of next week.

While there continue to be some uncertainties regarding the timing of this event and the location of the heaviest rainfall, it seems likely that we will end our current rain-free spell before conditions become too dry locally. The downside, may be the possibility of some severe thunderstorms, but that is not too unusual for spring storms.

Below are a few links to the upcoming weather outlook:

Precipitation Outlook Sunday-Monday

Precipitation Outlook Early Next Week

Sunday Surface Forecast Map

Sunday Upper-level Forecast Map

Assuming we do not get measurable precipitation today, the local area will have gone five days without rain and it appears as though this could continue another couple of days at least.

This will bring the longest stretch of rain-free days to Galveston County since March 22 through March 28, when we had seven consecutive rain free days.

With a high pressure ridge aloft, the dry trend seems likely to persist for a bit longer. There are indications, however, that we could be moving back into a wetter pattern by next week. Over the coming few days, a deep low pressure trough will develop to our west and move slowly east. This will nudge the high pressure ridge to the east, open up the area for moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and bring increasingly unstable conditions to the upper-atmosphere.

While it is a little too soon to get specific about what we may experience, the intermediate and long-term forecasts are suggesting wetter than normal conditions from mid through late April.

If this is so, then we should get a return to significant rains just about the time that the area is beginning to dry out. The downside, may be an increased chance for severe weather as the pattern unfolds. Still, a wet spring will be welcome after the dry springs of the last couple of years!

Upper-level Forecast Map for Next Week

6-10 Precipitation Outlook

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

UPDATE:Rainfall amounts in Galveston County yesterday ranged from 0.05" at Scholes Field to 0.52" and 0.85" further east on the Island. On the mainland, rainfall amounts totaled up to 1.58" in Friendswood and generally ran from a little over an inch west of I-45 to 1/2 to 3/4 inch east of there.

A line of thunderstorms moved through parts of Galveston County this morning. While Scholes Field, near Moody Gardens in Galveston, received only 0.01" of rain, amounts of 0.74" to close to one inch were reported further east on the Island.

The total rainfall of 15.77" so far this year in Galveston (5.71" above normal) and a total of 17.78" at League City (6.85" above normal) have been nice. What is even better has been the distribution of the rainfall. Galveston has received 29 days of measurable rain since January 1. That translates to rain falling on 1 of every 3.3 days.

This is significant, because rainfall distribution is as important, if not more so, than total amounts of rain.

For example, Sonora, Texas (which is definitely semi-arid at best) and London, England (which is lush and green), have virtually the same amount of annual rainfall. Sonora, however, receives only 60 days of measurable rain in a year and much of it is concentrated in a few months.

London, on the other hand, receives 145 days with measurable rain and no month averages less than 10 days of precipitation. One five inch rain is worth a lot less, in terms of soil moisture, than five days with one inch of rain.

Finally, I have been thinking about how much this spring in Texas resembles 1957, the year the drought broke. That impression was reinforced more with yesterday's tornadoes in the Dallas area, which brought to mind the Dallas tornado of April 2, 1957.

What makes this someone uncanny for me is that the Colorado State Tropical Meteorology Project's seasonal hurricane forecast was just released today. It lists 1957 ... along with 1965, 2001, and 2009 as analog years for this coming season. Analog years are those in which prevailing atmospheric and oceanic patterns are similar.

If this is true, it makes me wonder if we are not due for a June storm. Two of those four years, featured June storms impacting the upper-Texas coast. Audrey, in June, 1957, raked Galveston with 61-mph sustained winds, 78-mph gusts and a 6.5 foot tidal surge, while devastating Cameron, Louisiana. Allison in June, 2001, brought massive flooding to Houston and 9.77" of rain to Galveston.

I'm not saying that we will have a June storm, but I may be a little wary this year as we move into that month!

As posted a few days ago, March and this year in general is definitely off to a warm start. See ("2012 is off to warmest start in a dozen years", March 27, 2012).

With the past month now officially in the record books, we can definitely state that March, 2012 is now the second warmest ever since observations began in 1872. With a 70.1 degree monthly average (6.7 degrees above the long-term mean), this March was only eclipsed by March, 1907 which had a 70.4 degree monthly average.

In addition, the first three months of 2012 are also the second warmest ever, exceeded only by 1907 as well. The average temperature in Galveston for the period January 1 through March 31 was 63.9 degrees. The first three months of 1907 were only slightly warmer with a 64.2 degree mean.

Fortunately, 2012 continues to be much wetter than average, with precipitation totaling 15.29" since the first of the year. This is 5.29" more than would be expected through the first three months.

Looking down the road, most models suggest slightly warmer than normal temperatures and near normal rainfall through mid-April. As long as we continue to get adequate rainfall the warmer than normal weather should not place much stress on most plants. In the short-term, a couple of upper-level disturbances will bring a chance of rain back into our picture by Monday or Tuesday.

Certainly, the rain will be welcome even if the warm weather seems a little premature!


Below are some links to the weather outlook through mid-April:

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook

With March almost over, we are on track to have the warmest January through March since 2000.

Through March 27, Galveston was running 6.5 degrees above normal for the month. This combined with a warmer than normal January and February, is resulting in a three-month average that is 5.1 degrees above normal. This gives 2012 the mildest January through March since 2000, when the first three months of the year were 6.9 degrees warmer than normal.

In addition, March, 2012 with a 69.4 degree average to date is well on its way to being the second warmest March ever in Galveston since record-keeping began in 1872. Today's high of 80 degrees at Scholes Field gave the Island its fourth consecutive day with the mercury reaching the 80 degree mark. I checked back 15 years and could not find a March with so many consecutive 80 degree days. In fact, the temperature failed to reach 80 degrees at all in March for 7 of the last 15 years.

If it has been feeling a little warm to you lately, you have been right on the mark!

So, what do the forecasts suggest over the next couple of weeks? The Climate Prediction Center is projecting a return to more normal temperatures in both their 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks. In addition, the latest GFS model run is suggesting a significant cool down around the second week of April. That may bode well for those who like a bit more of spring before summer-like conditions really set in. After all, I doubt that there will be any shortage of warm weather over the next few months.

Below are links to the temperature outlooks through mid-April:

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

While we enjoy a spell of tranquil spring weather here, another upper-level low and deep low pressure trough has developed off the West Coast.

If the weather this winter and spring has been characterized by anything, it has been by a series of deep low pressure troughs and upper-level lows migrating from west to east across the country. This pattern has Galveston 5.31" ahead of normal for rainfall since January 1 and League City at 6.74" above normal for the year.

At first glance, the system off the West Coast appears to be a repeat of what we have seen over the past few months. Appearances may be deceiving in this case. What is different about the current situation is that the trough is supposed to hang back over along the West Coast with any real energy from the system tracking mostly across the northern tier of states and staying well north of Texas.

While upper-level winds will gradually become a little more favorable (flowing from the west and southwest) and low level moisture should increase over the coming few days, the main ingredients for a real rain-maker will be missing. This shows up in the models, which are suggesting some rain (around 1/3 inch) six to nine days from now, but nothing like the heavy rains and severe weather we have seen with these systems.

It is still a little too early to see if these projections will hold, but for the time being it appears as though a somewhat drier pattern may hold sway as we finish March and move into April.

Below are some links related to the coming weather outlook:

Current Upper-level Map

Upper-level Forecast Map for Three Days

Upper-level Forecast Map for Six Days

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

Wind advisories through Tuesday morning have been issued for the Galveston area as the next in a series of upper-level systems tracks eastward across the country.

A deep upper-level low pressure trough, ample moisture at the surface, an approaching Pacific cold front, a strong southern jet stream and the expected development of a surface low over south Texas should combine to bring a risk of severe storms and heavy rain to our area. If there is good news in any of this, it is that the highest risk of severe activity will be to the north of the immediate Galveston area, though damaging winds and heavy rain cannot be ruled entirely for the upper-Texas coast.

Although a squall line, expected to develop ahead and along the front, will provide the focus for much of the thunderstorm activity, clouds and rains may be slow to move out of the area, as the upper-low lags behind the front and the surface low moves slowly northeast. Still, we should see much improved conditions by Thursday and Friday as drier, more stable air builds into the region.

If forecasts hold with this system, then the 2012 pattern of wetter than normal conditions should hold through the end of March, giving gardeners near ideal soil moisture for April. Beyond that, the Climate Prediction Center is still calling for a drier than normal April. We shall see!

Following are links to the weather outlook over the next couple of days:

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook

24-hour Rainfall Forecast

48-hour Rainfall Forecast

Current Upper-level Map

Tuesday Surface Forecast Map

Texas Radar Loop

Despite some clouds and a few periods of fog, the weather over the past few days has been close to ideal, with mild temperatures and light winds. The high temperatures have crept to 80 degrees in League City a couple of times over the past few days and highs in the mid to upper-70's in Galveston have encouraged spring breakers to flock to the beaches.

With high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico keeping a southeasterly flow over the area, mild weather and partly cloudy skies are likely to continue through the weekend. Wind speeds, however, are likely to pick up by Sunday as low pressure deepens to our west.

In fact, this low pressure system and accompanying Pacific cold front are likely to bring another round of substantial rainfall and thunderstorms to Galveston County by late Tuesday or Wednesday. Currently, the best chances for thunderstorm activity and heavy rain appear to be to the north of the County, but system should be vigorous enough to ensure fairly decent rains in our area as well.

Weather in the wake of this system will not be all that bad either, with lower humidity levels, somewhat cooler temperatures and plenty of sunshine. Yes, I admit it....I have spring fever!

Below are some links to forecast maps for early next week:

Surface Forecast Map for Early Next Week

Upper-level Forecast Map For Next Week

Precipitation Outlook for Early Next Week

Maximum Temperature Outlook for Early Next Week

I've gotten this question quite often, especially with all the rain we've had since mid-November. I wish I had a simple answer, but I do not.

Where we stand right now, in Galveston County and southeast Texas, is that we are in pretty good shape as we head into spring. A couple of dry months, however, could still bring problems, particularly with deep soil moisture levels. Nevertheless, compared to the outlook we had last fall, I must say that our current situation is excellent.

Here is where we stand. Since November 15, Galveston has received a total of 20.27" of rain, which is 6.56" more than would be expected over that time span. Even more important, the rain has been evenly distributed over that four and a half month period. League City has received 20.62" of rain over the same time span, which puts them at 5.60" above what would be expected.

Rainfall has also been generous to our north and over large parts of Texas. Reservoir capacity statewide has improved from 66.97% a month ago to 71.79% as of today. Lake Houston and Lake Livingston are at 100% capacity and Lake Conroe at 83.35%. Still, these lakes were at 93% last year, but dropped precipitously through the late spring, summer and fall. To the west, the Hill Country still could use rain. Although Inks Lake and Lake Austin are at over 90% capacity, Lake Travis is still only at 49.1% and Lake Buchanan at 45.5%. Further north and west, Lake Abilene is only at 23% capacity.

Soil moisture levels continue to improve dramatically over the eastern third of Texas and were in fairly good condition even before this latest round of rains. Still, deep moisture and aquifer levels are less than ideal.

Looking ahead, much will depend on our rain between now and early summer. Spring often brings one or two very dry months. Last year, three of the four months from February through May had less than one inch of rainfall. In fact, every spring since 2007 has had one or two months where less than an inch of rain was recorded. 2006 was the last time every month from February through May had at least one inch or more of rain. So, we will need to see some reliable rainfall this spring for us to avoid sliding back into at least minimal to moderate drought conditions.

The next couple of weeks are projected to be reasonably wet, though a couple of models are suggesting a drying trend and the Climate Prediction Center continues to project a dry spring. Still, the CPC has been consistently wrong this winter, so there is hope that their outlook is too pessimistic.

Is the drought over? Not yet, but we are definitely moving in the right direction.

Below are some links relevant to this blog;

Current Texas Reservoir Status

Texas Drought Monitor

Soil Moisture Status

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Spring Weather Outlook

The first weekend of Spring Break is likely to have less than ideal weather as a complicated storm system meanders into Texas and the Great Plains. By the time the rains clear out late Sunday or early Monday, heavy amounts of precipitation may occur in Galveston County and certainly will occur north of the immediate area. Already, one to two inches of rain have been recorded over parts of East and East-central Texas.

While this may not be what Spring Breakers are looking for, it will provide a much needed boost to our reservoirs and water supply catchment area and will be a boon to gardeners hoping to head into Spring with ample soil moisture.

The main culprit continues to be a large, deep upper-level low now centered just north of El Paso. This is creating an increasingly unstable atmosphere over much of Texas. With the low expected to move very slowly, clouds and rain chances should linger through the weekend as upper-level disturbances track east out of the low and associated low pressure trough.

To add to this situation, a cold front has slowed down just off the Texas coast, bringing cool air at the surface, while warmer air aloft overrides the cooler air at the surface. This scenario is perfect for maintaining cloudy skies and periods of rain. Finally, a surface low is expected to develop along the front by sometime on Saturday, further enhancing rain chances. With this situation, one to three inches are considered possible over Galveston County before the system clears out. This is minimal, however, compared to the five to six inches deemed possible over deep East Texas.

Below are some links to graphical information on this weekend's weather outlook:

Current Upper-level Map

Current Texas Radar

24-hour Precipitation Outlook

48-hour Precipitation Outlook

24-hour Surface Forecast Map

With Spring rapidly approaching and temperatures gradually increasing, it would be nice to receive some more rain before we really get into the warm season. The good news is that we may just see some ample rainfall as we move into the later part of this week and through the weekend.

The catalysts will be a slow moving cold front, an upper-level low and trough that is expected to linger to our west before sliding into the Plains and a return of low-level moisture to southeast Texas. If the pattern unfolds as expected, it is almost certain that parts of East and Northeast Texas will receive 2-3 days of heavy rain before the system moves out.

The outlook for southeast Texas and Galveston County is a little less certain. We should see some rain from Thursday through Saturday or Sunday, but the heaviest rain is expected to be off to our north. Still, the various models are suggesting that we could receive an inch or more off rain before the system moves off to the northeast.

Despite our wet start to the year, Galveston has received only a trace of rain over the past 15 days and League City, but 0.10" inch, meaning that both locales are at the point where additional precipitation is needed if we are to avoid slipping back into dry conditions. The outlook is positive that we are likely to get the rain we need to maintain our current ample moisture levels.

Below are links to forecast maps and predictions for this looming rainfall event:

Day 3 Rainfall Outlook

Days 4 & 5 Rainfall Outlook

Day 3 Upper-level Forecast Map

Day 4 Upper-level Forecast Map

Day 4 Surface Forecast Map

It should come as no surprise that February, 2012 was wet and mild in Galveston. It was the 6th wettest February ever and the wettest February since 1992. The monthly temperature average of 60.5 degrees was 3.0 degrees warmer than normal, making this past month the warmest February since 2009.

To date, 2012 has brought the wettest first two months (with 10.33" to date) since 10.45" was recorded in 1998 at Scholes Field. Likewise, we have had the warmest first two months of the year since 1999. The coldest temperature recorded in Galveston since January 1 has been 37 degrees on February 12. In League City, the coldest so far this year has been 28 degrees observed on January 13. The lowest temperature in League City in February was 35 on February 12, meaning that the mainland has not seen a freezing temperature since January 14.

Will this trend continue through March?

The two-week forecasts continue to show warmer than normal temperatures for our area. The precipitation outlook is a little more mixed, with some models suggesting near normal rainfall through the first half of this month and others suggesting a drier trend. We shall see.

In the short-term, though, the outlook for this weekend is very nice, with cool temperatures, sunny skies and low humidity levels likely with the passage of a cold front overnight tonight.

Sounds like a good weekend to get outdoors!

Below are a few links to the short-term and long-term outlooks:

12 Hour Surface Forecast Map

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook

A stagnant weather pattern will mean that mostly cloudy skies, periods of fog and mild temperatures will continue through most of this week. As such, no significant changes in our local weather are anticipated until late Friday and Saturday when a cold front clears skies out and brings seasonably cool temperatures.

A persistent upper-level low pressure trough continues to linger over the southwestern U.S., while a large upper-high sits over the Gulf of Mexico. With southwest winds aloft, this is keeping cold fronts and other systems from pushing very deep into Texas. Meanwhile, a level of warm air aloft (called a cap) is keeping the atmosphere over southeast Texas fairly stable. Any precipitation has come from drizzle and fog in the lower levels where warm moist air continues to flow in over the cooler Gulf waters near shore.

Looking ahead, the trough to our west will finally move into the central Plains on Friday and Saturday, With upper-level winds becoming more northwesterly, the support for a more robust push of cold air will be present, bringing us sunny skies and cool temperatures by Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

Below are some links to the current and forecast weather pattern:

Current Upper-level Map

Three Day Upper-level Forecast Map

Three Day Surface Forecast Map

A blustery cold front will move through southeast Texas tonight (Thursday) bringing gale force wind gusts, alight chance of showers and chilly temperatures to the County. Already, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Galveston area and a Small Craft Advisory has been posted for area waters (see links below).

This kind of breezy weather is not unusual this time of year. In fact, February, March and April are the three windiest months of the year in Galveston with April having the highest average monthly wind speed at 12.1 mph. Usually wind speeds remain relatively high through May, with the average winds speed dropping markedly during the summer to a low of 9.4 mph in August.

Despite the breezy conditions the past couple of days, this February's 11.5 mph average wind speed is a little below the long-time norm of 11.8 mph. The next couple of days may be more than enough to bring us up to normal. In any case, I'm going to secure the chairs on my front porch, since strong northerly winds always play havoc with them!

Below are some links to the advisories and weekend weather outlook:

Wind Advisory

Small Craft Advisory

Friday Forecast Map

Weekend Precipitation Outlook

Somewhat atypical weather patterns have led to rather unusual weather across many parts of the world, with wetter than normal conditions in Galveston despite an ongoing La Niña. These patterns led to near record warmth in Europe this fall and early winter, followed by record cold in January and early February. Meanwhile, Alaska swung from extreme cold through early January to above normal temperatures for most of February.

So, the question is: what is up?

First, lets start with La Niña. This has been an "atypical" La Niña. Normally, during a La Niña winter, the southern (or Pacific) jet stream is displaced to the north, bringing wetter than normal conditions to the Pacific Northwest and dry, mild conditions to Texas. This year, as happens with about one in five La Niñas, high pressure settled over the Pacific Northwest displacing the jet stream to the south.

This has resulted in a wet autumn and winter in the Galveston area. Since November 1, Galveston has received 17.89" of rain, which is 4.00" above normal. Since January 1, Galveston's precipitation total is 10.27", which is 4.52" more than would be expected at this point in the new year. Seattle, by contrast, has had 3.20" less rain since November 1, than they would normally receive.

Second, we have seen impacts from changes in a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This pattern, which involves the movement of the jet stream over the Arctic, generally can be found in two distinct phases-a positive phase and a negative phase. In the positive phase, relatively low pressure persists over the Arctic along with a strong jet stream flow. In this phase, cold air tends to stay "trapped" over the Arctic, resulting in frigid weather in places like Alaska and warmer weather in the mid-latitudes of the U.S., Europe and far eastern Asia. This is what prevailed through November and December. In its negative phase, the pattern is reversed...hence the record-breaking cold outbreak in Europe at the same time temperatures warmed up in Alaska.

This brings us to the third pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The North Atlantic Oscillation reflects the difference between the sea level pressure of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. When this difference is large (a positive North Atlantic Oscillation), strong westerly winds tend to keep Europe winters mild and wet. When it is high, the tendency is for Europe to experience a major cold wave and severe cold often strikes the Eastern U.s. as well. Normally, the North Atlantic Oscillation changes in tandem with the Arctic Oscillation. This year, they were somewhat out of synch. So, while Europe did get its Arctic outbreak, the U.S. Northeast was largely spared.

So, what are we to make of this? The first, is that most local weather is affected greatly by large-scale patterns and events often taking place thousands of miles away. The second, is that predicting weather is always a challenge due to the need to correlate local factors with more global features. Finally, that our weather for the rest of this year will be determined chiefly by how these large-scale features evolve in the coming months.

Right now, most predictions suggest that we will gradually move from a La Niña pattern to what is called an ENSO Neutral pattern (neither La Niña nor El Niño) with temperatures and rainfall running near to a little below normal in southeast Texas. However, with the atypical southern jet stream pattern still in place and a large upper-level low pressure trough still hanging back to our west, I would assume that we will still see fairly decent rainfall through the next couple of weeks or so. Beyond that...we'll just have to see what develops!

Below are links to information relevant to this blog:

Ocean Temperatures and Current La Niña Outlook

ENSO Discussion and Outlook

Graphic La Niña Forecasts

Arctic Oscillation Explained

Current Arctic Oscillation Outlook

Current North Atlantic Oscillation Outlook

Heavy rains flooded streets across Galveston Island yesterday as thunderstorms Friday night and again on Saturday created soggy conditions for Mardi Gras revelers. As expected, however, the rains moved out of the area in time for Saturday's big parade.

As a result of the weekend rains, Galveston is experiencing its wettest February since 1992. Even if a no more rain is received this month, 2012 will go into the record books as the 6th wettest February ever with 7.26" measured so far this month at the official observation site at Scholes Field.

The heavy rains Friday night and Saturday morning, totaled in excess of 3 inches, with the 2.85" measured on Saturday setting a new daily record for Galveston. Amounts were even heavier on the East End of the Island, where 3.86" of rain were measured in the central part of the city, including 3.45" on Saturday. Further east on the Island, 2.96" was recorded on Saturday with a storm total of 3.42" noted.

The rainfall amount at the National Weather Service Office in Dickinson/League City measured 2.13", while totals in the northern part of the County were less impressive with amounts generally ranging from 0.40" to 0.60".

With the ongoing wet spell, Galveston has now received 10.27" of rain since January 1, which is 5.80" above normal for the year.

With this rainfall, drought conditions have diminished considerably over the eastern third of Texas. However, long-term models suggest a drier trend for the area through the rest of this month and into March.

Rainfall Totals Map

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook

March Weather Outlook

The bad news for Mardi Gras participants is that thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rain are likely to move through Galveston County this evening and perhaps re-develop overnight and early on Saturday. The good news is that precipitation is expected to move out of the area by the time the big parade starts Saturday evening.

A warm front extending northeast from near Corpus Christi is moving slowly north and is serving as a focal point for thunderstorm development. Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing over the past few hours and should move into the Galveston area in a few hours. We may see more rain develop early Saturday as an upper-low to the west moves east across the region and a surface low develops over northern Mexico and moves northeast overnight. Rains in excess of 2' will be possible with this event.

Fortunately, cooler and drier air will move into the area by Saturday night with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures in the picture for Sunday.

Below are some links to the latest weather outlooks:

Texas Radar Loop

Storm Prediction Center Current Outlook

24-hour Precipitation Outlook

Current Upper-level Map

Surface Forecast Map For Tonight

UPDATE: 8:25 am, Thursday: A wet weekend seems increasingly likely with heavy rain possible for the Galveston area. Showers could move back into southeast Texas as early as this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms likely by Friday night into Saturday. There is still a chance that all or most of the rain could move out of the area by Saturday evening in time or the big parade.

Despite wet weather last Friday which brought 0.57" of rain to Galveston and 0.80" to League City, the rain moved out early enough for dry conditions to prevail during the Mardi Gras parades that evening. And, with sunshine on Saturday, nearly ideal (though perhaps a little chilly) weather greeted Mardi Gras participants during the first big weekend of events.

With a decidedly damp pattern still in place the question is: will our luck with timing on these rains hold for the second weekend of Mardi Gras?

Already this week, more heavy rains moved through Galveston County on Monday with amounts ranging from 0.77" at Scholes Field in Galveston to a 1.53" in central Galveston. This resulted in some localized street flooding over the eastern half of the city. On the mainland, rainfall on Monday ranged from 0.57" at the NWS Office in League City to around 0.77" in the northern parts of the County.

A cool front moving east across Texas is likely to set off another round of rain this afternoon and evening, though the best chances for rain may be off to our north and east. We should see a break in the weather on Thursday with some sunshine expected. Unfortunately, rain chances will increase again on Friday and much of Saturday.

This is where the luck will need to come into play. The culprit this weekend will be a surface low forecast to form in the Gulf of Mexico along the front. This is expected to move northeast out of the area by sometime on Saturday.

The timing of this event will be the key in how much planned Mardi Gras activities will be affected. There is a chance that the rains could come in late enough to miss most of the parades scheduled Friday evening and may move out in time to spare the Momus Parade on Saturday night.

The operative word in this scenario is "could". Since timing the onset and departure of rain in these type of patterns is very difficult, at best, we will need some luck. We had it last weekend, but it is still too early to tell for sure if we will have the same kind of luck this weekend.

By the way, look for a blog in a few days on some of the unusual patterns that have made this winter's weather so difficult to predict--not only locally, but over much of the northern hemisphere.

Below are some links on the weather outlook for this coming weekend:

24-hour Precipitation Outlook

Saturday Precipitation Outlook

Saturday Forecast Surface Map

Sunday Precipitation Probability Map

Texas Radar Loop

As hoped, the timing with precipitation was nearly ideal with respect to this weekend's Mardi Gras festivities. Friday's rains moved out of the area before the Friday night parades and sunshine graced the area most of Saturday.

The prospects are not so promising for the rain weary, however, as we look ahead at the coming week.

A large upper and mid-level trough located to our west, combined with a warm front is expected to bring thunderstorms to the Galveston area on Monday. The mid-level trough is forecast to move through the central part of the country over the coming 24-36 hours, while a warm front moves onshore along the Texas coast in conjunction with a surface low. This will bring a surge of mild, moist air at the lower levels to add fuel to an unstable atmosphere.

There is some chance of severe storms and even a few brief tornadoes tomorrow as the system moves through. The good news is that there should be a break in the weather on Tuesday, but the bad news is that another mid to upper-level trough will bring another shot at rain on Wednesday or Thursday.

With 3.33" of rain so far this month, Galveston has already exceeded its long-term February norm of 2.57" and is on track to become the wettest February since 2004, when 4.18" of rain was measured for the month.

With upper-level low pressure expected to continue over the west for the next week or two, there is a good chance that our current wet spell will last through much of the rest of this month. Most models are hinting at another round of rain beginning next Saturday and Sunday, though the timing on this event is questionable this far out.

In any case, keep your umbrellas nearby for the time being. It looks as though they will come in handy over the next week or two!

Below are some links to the weather outlook for this coming week:

24-Hour Surface Forecast Map

Current 700 MB Mid-level Map

24-hour Precipitation Outlook

4-5 Day Precipitation Outlook

6-10 Weather Outlook

Texas Radar Loop

This weekend brings the first of many Mardi Gras events to Galveston and several other communities in the area.

The bad news is that rain is likely tomorrow and again on Sunday. The good news is that the rain may move out of the area before Friday night's parades and not return until Sunday.

Forecasters hate ambiguity and this current pattern, unfortunately, lends itself to muddled prognostications. While the general consensus of at least a couple of rain events over the coming 72 hours is clear enough, the timing of when the showers appear and when they will be absent, remains somewhat uncertain.

Based on the latest projections, it seems that light rain and showers will be present for most of the day on Friday. But, drier conditions may appear just in time for the parades planned Friday night. Even better, some sun and only a very slight chance of rain, seems probable for Saturday with the next round of rain appearing on Sunday.

The main culprit is a large upper-level low currently situated near Baja California. This is sending moisture from the Pacific on southwesterly winds across Texas....which accounts for the cloudiness. Meanwhile, the low and associated low pressure trough is expected to send upper-level disturbances across the area on Friday and again on Sunday. These should be sufficient to bring widespread, though relatively light rain to the Galveston area.

If this holds, then we will get the best of both worlds: more precipitation leading up to spring and decent, though somewhat cool, conditions for the first weekend of Mardi Gras.

Assuming we do not get a wild card in the weather deck, then those wishing to "laissez les bon temps rouler" will not be disappointed!

Check out links below for the weekend weather outlooks:

Friday Precipitation Outlook

Saturday Precipitation Outlook

Monday-Tuesday Precipitation Outlook

Current Upper-level Weather Map

Texas Radar Loop

It's getting to be that time of year again. Plans are in full swing for a number of parades and activities this weekend as Mardi Gras season rolls around.

Looking ahead, a reinforcing push of cold air by Wednesday and perhaps again on the weekend should keep temperatures seasonably cool for the first weekend of Mardi Gras celebrations. A upper-level low and trough to the west and southwest will likely keep skies mostly on the cloudy side for most of this week and into the weekend.

The big question is if the cloudy skies will produce enough precipitation to spoil the planned festivities in Galveston. At this point in time, the odds seem to favor a mostly dry weekend, but it would not take too much change in the overall pattern to set off a wetter scenario.

Although the low to the west will send a series of weak upper-level disturbances across southeast Texas, a major impediment to precipitation will be the fairly dry air at the surface. Also, with the low hanging back to the west and remaining fairly far to the south, the best chances for rain will be off to our south and west.

Assuming this pattern unfolds as expected, any rain we see in this area will be sporadic and light. But, forecasters cannot completely rule out more widespread rain and it may take a couple of days to get a better fix on exactly what our weekend will look like.

To summarize, the outlook is fairly promising for the weekend, but we may have to wait a couple of days to see if this trend continues.

Below are links to some forecast maps and precipitation outlooks for this weekend:

Friday Upper-level Forecast Map

Saturday Upper-level Forecast Map

Weekend Precipitation Outlook

Wednesday Surface Forecast Map

Friday Surface Forecast Map

Thunderstorms in advance of an approaching cold front were booming across Galveston County this morning. With the front moving slowly and storms tracking parallel to the coast, it should take awhile for this activity to clear out of the area.

In addition, an upper-level low and trough to our west will keep clouds and rain in our picture tomorrow, along with much cooler weather, as weak upper-level disturbances travel northeast across the area.

The long-term picture is a little more muddled however. While this is much agreement that the next couple of weeks will be cooler than what we have seen lately, there is some differences among the models on how wet the next 14-days or so will be.

With two Mardi Gras weekends approaching, how this plays out will concern a lot of people. The GFS model, for example, was predicting a wet weekend for February 11-12. Now is is leaning towards a rain free scenario, though it still anticipates some light rain early the following week. A lot will depend on the upper-level pattern down the road. If the upper-level trough hangs back our west, then a wet pattern seems likely.

Since forecasts more than a week ahead tend to be somewhat speculative, we may just have to wait a few days before we can get an accurate read on next weekend.

For me, I am one of those who are torn about what I want. On the one hand, I am delighted with the rain we have been getting and would like to avoid one of our frequent late winter/early spring droughts. On the other hand, I hope to participate in some Mardi Gras activities and do not particularly wish to get drenched.

We shall see!

Below are links to the current and upcoming weather outlooks:

Texas Radar Loop

24-hour Rainfall Outlook

Upper-level Forecast for Next Week

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook

Although I knew that January, 2012 was milder than normal, it still surprised me to learn that this past month was the 8th mildest January ever in Galveston, with records going back to January, 1872. In fact, it was the warmest January on the Island since January, 1952.

January temperatures followed this pattern on the mainland as well where the 58.4 degree average for the month was 5.8 degrees above established norms at the National Weather Service Office in League City/Dickinson. This compared to a 61.1 degree monthly average at Scholes Field in Galveston, which was 5.9 degrees above normal.

The lowest temperature for the month in Galveston was only 38 degrees and the highest was 75. In League City, the lowest was 28 degrees and the highest was 78.

Precipitation for the month was below normal in Galveston, though it could hardly be considered a "dry" month with 3.01" recorded (1.19" less than normal). League City received 6.33", though it must be noted that 5.18" of that total fell on one day.

Looking ahead, the intermediate-term forecasts are suggesting cooler and wetter weather than normal through mid-February. While this is good news for those hoping to avoid a repeat of last year's late winter drought (with only 0.67" measured in February), it may cause some complications for the upcoming Mardi Gras festivities. Current forecasts suggest rain for this weekend, and at least one model is calling for fairly decent amounts of rain for the first Friday of Mardi Gras....when, perhaps appropriately, another umbrella parade is scheduled in Galveston.

Of course, that is looking fairly far ahead and stands a good chance of being revised as that date comes nearer. We shall see!

Below are links associated with this topic:

Weekend Precipitation Outlook

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook

SECOND UPDATE: 7:20 am (1/31/12): As I suspected when I posted the first update yesterday, the GFS model has backed off of its forecast yesterday of a major Arctic outbreak in 10 days and now shows no hint of really frigid air making its way this far south.

PRIOR BLOG: Last winter brought hard freezes to much of the County and 9 mornings with freezing temperatures even to Galveston Island. By contrast, Galveston Island has yet to receive a freezing temperature this winter and, even on the mainland, freezes have been modest and relatively scarce.

However, while Europe and much of the United States have enjoyed a much milder than normal winter, Alaska has been suffering through its coldest winter in quite a few years. This past week brought temperatures as low as -60 degrees to parts of Alaska, giving much of central and western Alaska its coldest final week of January since 1989.

Given the mild conditions so far, the question is if and when this really frigid Arctic air will make it way this far south. In 1989, the cold air trapped in Alaska finally made its way to Texas, fostering a massive ice storm during the first week of Mardi Gras in Galveston and bringing the second coldest March temperature ever to the area.

So far, the extended forecasts, are not suggesting a repeat this year. Although a cold front will bring seasonably chilly weather to the area by this weekend and longer term forecasts are suggesting minimum temperatures in the 30's for the Island and upper-20's for the mainland by the second week of February, there is no hint that the really frigid air will pour into Texas anytime soon. Instead, near normal temperatures are expected through at least mid-February.

In the short-run, an upper-level disturbance may bring some rain to Galveston County tomorrow and there may be another chance for some precipitation again on Friday and Saturday when a couple of cold fronts push through the area. If this pans out, it will be good, because February is often the start of our fairly frequent spring dry spells.

Otherwise, I for one, am content to see the really cold air stay out of our area and hope that this can continue through March.

Below are some links to weather outlooks associated with this blog:

Day 2 Rainfall Outlook

Day 4-5 Precipitation Outlook

Current Alaska Temperatures

6-10 Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook












http://www.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=ASAK48PAFC&type=public

Our weather will settle down considerably over the next few days as a storm system moves out of the state and high pressure settles in. While we may see some clouds today on the back side of the upper-level low, cooler and drier air will dominate our weather picture through the weekend. This will be aided by another Pacific cool front due to push through the state on Saturday.

Although, Galveston County received fairly decent amounts of rain as the storms moved through yesterday, they were generally less than expected by the models. On Galveston Island, rainfall amounts ranged from 0.53" at Scholes Field west of 61st Street, to 0.55" in mid-town and 0.69" on the East End. On the mainland, rainfall amounts ranged from 0.67" near League City to 0.93" in the far northern part of the County. Heavier rains were generally confined to areas north and east of Harris County, though parts of Harris County received a couple of inches of rain.

Extended forecast models are keeping rain prospects over the next week or so fairly low, so it looks like locals will have a good opportunity to begin working on their early spring gardens.

Below is a link to an accumulated rainfall map for southeast Texas and the 6-10 weather outlook:

24-hour accumulated rainfall

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

UPDATE: 11:30 am-The local NWS Office has issued a Special Marine Warning and Small Craft Advisory for the off-shore and Bay waters in Galveston County. An approaching squall line is producing winds in excess of 34-knots and should move into the Galveston area within the next hour or so.

A storm system moving slowly across Texas ahead of an advancing cold front has prompted the issuance of various watches and warnings over much of the state this morning.

Already, Flash Flood Warnings have been issued for parts of Central Texas and a Tornado Warning has been issued for areas just east of Bryan/College Station. A large area of thunderstorms was located over North Texas this morning and a line of intense storms was approaching Southeast Texas from the west. The storms are being enhanced by a large upper-level low and surface lows along the front over southwest Texas and northern Mexico.

In addition to a slight possibility of tornadoes, gusty, severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be possible as the storms move through Galveston County.

Fortunately, the system should move out of the area later today and we should see improving conditions tomorrow as cooler, drier air moves into the area.

Below are links to sites with additional information on this developing weather situation:

Tornado Watch Area

Radar Loop

Upper-level Map

Surface Map

Today's Rainfall Outlook

A complex storm system promises to bring the heaviest rains to Galveston County since a similar system brought more than 2 inches to the area on January 9.

An upper-level low is expected to move out of New Mexico into west Texas and then eastward on Wednesday. At the same time, a surface low should develop over Texas while southerly winds bring deeper levels of low level moisture back to southeast Texas. With divergent winds aloft creating an increasingly unstable atmosphere, the stage is set for moderate to heavy rain from late on Tuesday through Thursday morning.

Though the timing on all of this is still uncertain and there are some factors that could decrease overall rainfall amounts, the overall picture seems very promising as we head for the end of the month.

One to two inches of rain are generally projected for the County with this event. With 2.25 inches recorded so far this month at the official observation site at Scholes Field, this may bring enough rain to give us our second consecutive month with at or above normal rainfall (December, 2011 received 4.41 inches of rain, which was 0.89" more than would be expected for that month).

Although drought conditions have receded considerably due to a relatively wet late autumn and early winter, it would not take much of spring dry spell to put us back in a fairly parched situation. And, with long-term forecast still suggesting a quite dry spring, I am hoping that we can benefit from this wetter period while we can!

Below are some links to forecasts and outlooks related to this blog:

Today's Rainfall Outlook

Radar Loop

Upper-level Map

Surface Map

February through April Weather Outlook

Fog is likely to make a return to the coastal sections of the County tomorrow and on Saturday as warm, moist air flows in from the south over cool, Gulf waters near shore.

This return of milder conditions will also herald a gradual pattern change that may bring decent rains back to the County late next week into the early part of the following week. Currently, the U.S. largely under a zonal type pattern with westerly winds aloft prevalent over much the country, despite a weak low pressure trough over the East. This is expected to gradually change back to a pattern with a deeper trough developing over the West. If this happens, then rainfall prospects will improve for our area.

The last few GFS model runs have been particularly suggestive of this trend with the latest model showing rather substantial rainfall over Galveston County five to eight days from now. This is reflected to a lesser degree in the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook, which suggests near normal rainfall during that time span.

Meanwhile, the really cold air remains up in the Pacific Northwest, western Canada and Alaska. Most models keep it there for the foreseeable future, meaning our basically mild weather will continue with only brief outbreaks of chilly, but not frigid air.

Since the months of February, March and April are often characterized by relatively low rainfall totals in Galveston County, I personally would not mind a return to a wetter pattern before we enter into spring.....though...of course, I hope it remains dry for Mardi Gras!

Below are some links to the longer-term weather outlook:

Upper-level Forecast Map for Late Next Week

Precipitation Probability Forecast For Late Next Week

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

Bill Read's public announcement that he will retire as head of the National Hurricane Center as of June 1 evoked many reactions on my part even though I knew that it was forthcoming.

On the one hand, I am happy for him. It is well a deserved change for the former Navy veteran and Aggie, who served as head of the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service Office from 1992 to 2007. Despite moving to Miami to take the Hurricane Center position, Read maintained his residence, social and professional contacts in this area and appeared on several occasions as speaker with the local AMS chapter and hurricane awareness events.

On the other hand, we were very fortunate to have someone at the Hurricane Center with such an intimate knowledge of the Galveston and Houston area. He possessed deep insight into the unique challenges faced by residents and leaders of our region and kept a close working relationship with all of those involved in hurricane emergency planning. I know that many of us in this area will miss this personal touch during hurricane season.

If I could sum up my feelings, it is that we have lost a very valuable resource at the Hurricane Center, but have gained a neighbor.

Personally, I have had the privilege to meet and talk with Bill on numerous professional and social occasions. I found him to be modest, personable and always aware of the responsibility he had to communicate effectively and accurately to the public and decision makers whenever tropical systems threatened. In addition, he never hesitated to answer any questions that I or others might have regarding tropical meteorology and forecasts.

I know that Bill Read has a number of options available when he returns to the Houston-Galveston area and that he will continue to be active with local forecasters, emergency planners, and weather reporters. In whatever role he takes in retirement, I want to thank him for a job well done and wish him the best for the coming years.

A blustery cold front, expected to reach the coast after midnight, has prompted the issuance of a Wind Advisories for southeast Texas and Small Craft Advisory for Galveston Bay and near shore Gulf waters.

Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, with higher gusts are expected, especially from 6 am to 6 pm, Thursday. The winds should bring 4-6 foot seas offshore, prompting the Small Craft Advisory.

The front will bring temperatures to near or a little below freezing to the northwest parts of the County Thursday morning with temperatures in the mid to upper-30's near the coast and Bay.

The cold spell will be relatively brief, with milder conditions expected by the weekend. With little moisture available, the frontal passage should be dry.

Below are links to the advisories and the forecast weather map:

Wind Advisory

Small Craft Advisory

12-Hour Forecast Map

The storms yesterday certainly lived up to their advanced billing with street flooding reported all the way from Galveston Island north to Houston. Galveston received its heaviest rainfall since October and damage was reported from a possible rare January tornado in the Texas City area.


Cars drive through high water on 39th Street in Galveston.

Rainfall totals in Galveston ranged from 2.08" at Scholes Field on the West End to 2.15" closer to the downtown area. Ironically, the 2.08" downpour was not the heaviest rain for the date, as a 2.72" total in 1991 retains that record. Further north, rainfall amounts ranged from 2.37" in Friendswood to 2.82" just northwest of League City and a whopping 5.18" total at the National Weather Service Office in League City/Dickinson.

The scattered damage reported across the County may have been from straight-line winds rather than tornadoes, though this remains to be confirmed at this time. Tornadoes are very rare in the area during January and I could find no reports of confirmed tornadoes during the month locally. A similar event did occur on January 29, 1997 when a strong winds with thunderstorms broke tree limbs in Santa Fe and caused damage along Harborside Drive in Galveston.

Generally, January is one of the months with the fewest tornadoes nationwide, though there have been some destructive outbreaks during the month, even in such unlikely places as Santa Barbara, California, Wisconsin and New York State.

With the surface and upper-lows moving out of the state, the stage is set for some chilly temperatures later this week, with the mercury expected to dip into the 30's over the County by Thursday and Friday mornings.

Below are some links to articles about tornadoes and January tornadoes:

Tornado Climatology

New York Tornado, January, 1872

Santa Barbara Tornado

January, 2008 Tornado Outbreak

The National Weather Service Office in League City/Dickinson has issued a number of warnings for southeast Texas and Galveston County as thunderstorms continue to develop and move across the region. A Tornado Warning was issued until noon today for portions of Brazoria and Galveston counties (see link below) and a number of severe weather and flash flood warnings were placed in effect over the area as a large system moves east through Texas.

Below are links to the Texas radar and to the local warnings:

Tornado Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Flash Flood Warning

Texas Radar Loop

Considering that 2011 was the fifth driest year ever in Galveston and that long-range forecast are suggesting more dry weather for 2012, I suspect that many people will welcome the fact that we may see the first significant rains this year by late Sunday and Monday.

The culprits in this situation will be a deep mid to upper-level low that will drop south into Texas by Sunday and a cold front that will stall over the state. This, combined with increasing Gulf moisture, should provide the impetus for widespread moderate to heavy rains over much of Texas, including the Galveston area.

To begin with, a weak upper-level disturbance, should bring some showers to coastal regions of the County this morning. This precipitation should move out of the area later today, but fog may develop along the coast late tonight and on Saturday as warm, moist air flows over the cooler waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Finally, widespread rains should begin in earnest overnight Sunday into Monday. Early forecast suggest that an inch or two of rain is not out of the question before the system moves off to the east.

In other words, we have all the ingredients for our first real wet spell of 2012.

Below are a few links to the weather outlook late this weekend into early next week:

Precipitation Outlook for Late Sunday

Precipitation Outlook for Early Next Week

Upper-level Forecast Map

Surface Forecast Map

Texas Radar Loop

The weather for 2011 has now been entered into the record books. As such, it will be remembered as a very unusual year for weather with extreme drought, a very cold winter and the the hottest summer ever for Galveston.

Despite a wet December, 2011 still qualified as the 5th driest year ever for Galveston. It's 22.95" rainfall total for the year was 27.81" below the 30-year average of 50.76". This dearth of precipitation is only exceeded by the 21.40" rainfall total for 1948, the 21.43" in 1917, the 21.84" yearly total for 1956 and the 22.29" in 1954. The paltry 2.65" of rain received between April 1 through September 30 of this year is the second driest five-months ever in Galveston (with records going back to 1871), surpassed only by the period, July 1 to November 30, 1924 with its 2.08" five-month total rainfall.

2011 brought a cold January and February. Those two months had 9 days with freezing temperatures in Galveston, the most for the Island since 1989. On the mainland, residents of the League City area shivered through 14 days with freezing temperatures during those two months.

By contrast, 2011 with its 72.4 degree annual average will go into the record books as the second warmest year ever in Galveston, exceeded only by 2006 with its 72.6 degree annual average. Summer, 2011 was the hottest on record in Galveston County, with June and August being the hottest ever and July ranking as the second hottest ever. The 103 days with temperatures of 90 degrees or higher was the most ever recorded in Galveston, surpassing the 99 days registered in 2005. A 100 degree reading on August 27 was the first time the mercury reached or exceeded the century mark on the Island since September, 2000. Meanwhile, residents of League City sweltered through a summer with 13 days at or above the 100 degree

What will the coming year bring? The fact is nobody knows for sure. But, extended forecasts do suggest a continuation of drier and warmer than normal conditions through at least the first half of the coming year. The culprit is a lingering La Niña condition with tends to produce drought conditions over the southern U.S. There are some hints that the La Niña may weaken or disappear during the second half of the year, but that is uncertain at this time. What does seem certain is that we are unlikely to get much drought relief through at least the first half of 2012.

Below are a few links related to this blog:

January-March Weather Outlook

April-June Weather Outlook

July-September Weather

October-December Weather

El Nino-La Nina Outlook

EBSO Forecasts

Although we have one more day before we say goodbye to December and to 2011, it is not too soon to state that December, 2011 has been a very good month weather-wise. This is especially gratifying, given the generally poor weather for the year overall. For one, this December will go in the record books as the only month this year with above-normal precipitation, with 4.41" reported through December 30. This makes it the first month since November, 2010 to have more rain than average.

Even more important, rains were spread out evenly through the month. Nine days received measurable precipitation, the most since January, 2011, which also saw nine days with measurable rainfall. This continued a trend that appeared in November, which had eight days with rainfall of at least 0.01" or more. Considering that six months this year had less than five days with measurable precipitation, this was a welcome trend indeed.

A similar pattern was found at inland locations around the County with the National Weather Service Site at League City, receiving measurable rainfall on ten days this month, for a total of 4.00" overall.

Temperatures this December were fairly good as well, by most standards. Extremely cold temperatures were missing, though there was enough chilly days to please those who like to see some winter-like weather. As it stands, both Galveston and League City will finish the month with near normal, though slightly below, temperatures. Galveston did not report a freeze this month with the lowest temperature being a 33 degree reading on December 7. League City saw three light freezes, with a 28 degree low being reported on December 7. By way of contrast, League City had five freezing days in December, 2010.

Looking ahead, near normal temperatures are expected through mid-January. Although some fairly cold air is now building over Alaska with temperatures dipping into the -35 to -45 degree range, the models do not seem inclined to send this frigid air this way anytime soon. The Climate Prediction Center still projects a warmer than normal January for our area, but I would warn that the return of a more amplified upper-level pattern could open the door for some of that Arctic air.

At any rate, I am grateful for the wet, cool weather we've had this December and hope that January will confound those who are calling for a dry month!

Below are links to the extended forecasts for the U.S.:

January Weather Outlook

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook

January-March Weather Outlook

An unfamiliar sight appeared across southeast Texas this morning. That unfamiliar light is the sky is the morning sun, a view that has been absent as of late.

The good news is that the clouds have moved away after leaving fairly abundant amounts of rainfall across Galveston County and that the sun is here to stay for awhile. And even better news may be that mild temperatures will return to the area by late in the week.

While it appears that sunny to partly cloudy skies will prevail for much of this week, the picture becomes a little more uncertain as we end the week and move into New Year's weekend. Warm, moist air will begin to return to our area as the week ends. This could bring a return of some cloudiness, a slight chance of rain and even some fog back to the area. Right now, it appears that New Year's Eve will be mild with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a slight chance of rain or fog.

Looking even further ahead, the models are divided at this time with one well-respected model keeping the mild conditions around for New Years Day and beyond and another suggesting that a surge of fairly cold air will reach southeast Texas by the beginning of the New Year. Guess we'll have to wait and see which model proves to be superior in this case.

At any rate, I intend to walk my dogs and enjoy the sunny weather!

Below are a couple of links to the weather outlook for New Year's Eve:

Maximum Temperature Forecast for New Year's

New Year's Eve Surface Forecast Map

New Year's Eve Upper-level Forecast Map

A developing winter storm will bring rain, chilly temperatures and rough seas to the upper-Texas coast, but no snow. While many of the same ingredients are in place as we saw in 2004, temperatures both aloft and at the surface are not cold enough to produce snow in our area. Rainfall amounts from 1/4 to 1 inch will be widespread throughout the area with isolated amounts up to 2 inches.

The main culprits will be an upper-level low tracking east from southern New Mexico and West Texas and a surface low that should develop east of Brownsville and track northeast across the western Gulf of Mexico.

A small craft advisory has been issued for the waters offshore of Galveston as steady winds of 15-25 mph and wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be common over the coming 12-18 hours.

We should see improving weather on Monday into the middle of the week as drier air works into the area from the west.

Until then, it sounds like ideal weather to sit at home by the Christmas tree or fire with friends and family!

Below are links to the latest weather outlooks:

Small Craft Advisory

6-hour Surface Forecast Map

Texas Radar Loop

5-Day Rainfall Outlook

Heavy rains rolled across southeast Texas early this morning with 1.29" of rain recorded at Scholes Field by 7 am. In addition to providing much needed precipitation to both Galveston and southeast Texas, the rains helped keep 2011 from ending with the "driest year ever" label.

With the 1.29" of rain, the yearly precipitation total for Galveston rose to 21.79", exceeding the 21.40" measured for 1948 and 21.43" recorded in 1917. The good news is that a little more rain is expected this morning before the surface low moves northeast out of the area. In addition, heavy rains were recorded north and east of Houston where much of the areas water supply is located. As of 6 am, Conroe had measured 1.70" with rain still falling and some spots in Polk County reporting 1.90 to 2.10" of rain.

Looking ahead, clearing skies and cool temperatures will be likely from this afternoon through Friday. Rain chances and chilly weather are expected for Christmas Eve as colder air pushes into the region and another upper-level system tracks east. Most models are calling for clearing skies and seasonably chilly temperatures for Christmas Day, though a couple are keeping rain and clouds around for much of the day.

Below are some links to the current and forecast weather conditions:

Texas Radar Loop

5-Day Rainfall Outlook

Christmas Eve Forecast Weather Map

Projected Minimum Temperatures for Christmas Day