Two consecutive afternoons with 90° plus temperatures have highlighted the fact that May, 2012 will almost certainly match the first four months of this year, all of which have been considerably warmer than normal. In fact, at the present time, 2012 is well on the track to becoming the warmest year ever in Galveston.

The three warmest years since observations began in 1872 have all occurred over the past seven years (1. 2006-72.6°;2. 2011-72.4° and 3. 2005-72.3°) and this year is proving to be no exception to the rule. A similar trend holds in League City where the National Weather Service office has a less lengthy observation record.

Looking at the long-term outlook, the Climate Prediction Center is calling for warmer than normal temperatures through the next two weeks. Beyond that, the CPC is also projecting a warmer than normal June.

The good news in all of this is that we have had plenty of rainfall to date to go along with the steamy temperatures. Although we are currently in a dry spell that may last a week or longer, there is some hope for change. The GFS model hints that we may see some decent (though not exceptional) rain the first week of June. In addition, the Climate Prediction Center is calling for normal precipitation during the month of June. So we may see some relief for our lawns and gardens before conditions become too arid.

As for the upcoming Hurricane Season, both the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State and the private consulting firm WSI (Weather Services International) are predicting fewer named storms and hurricanes than in 2010 and 2011. There may, however, be a slightly increased risk of hurricane landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico this year, according to WSI meteorologist Todd Crawford. With this in mind, it is not too soon to think about updating your hurricane plans for this year. As the saying goes: "plan for the worst, hope for the best".

Below are some links related to this blog:

6-10 Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook

June Weather Outlook

WSI Hurricane Season Forecast

UPDATE: SUNDAY (5/20):Alberto continues to spin in the Atlantic off the South Carolina coast as the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season gets off to an early start. The storm, with sustained winds of 50-mph, is moving slowly west-southwest at 6-mph, but is expected to re-curve to the northeast over the coming 24-48 hours. At 8 am, EDT, Alberto was centered near 31.7 N and 79.3 W, or about 95 miles south-southeast of Charleston,

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season got off to an early start today, as Tropical Storm Alberto formed from a non-tropical low off the coast of South Carolina. The storm, with sustained winds of 45-mph, is moving slowly southwest, but is expected to re-curve to the northeast over the coming 24-48 hours.

At 5 pm, EDT, Alberto was centered near 32.2 N and 77.7 W, or about 140 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Sustained winds were at 45-mph and central barometric pressure was 1007 MB (29.74").

Alberto becomes the earliest named storm in the Atlantic since Ana formed in April, 2003. A sub-tropical storm, named Andrea formed in May, 2007, but it never became a fully tropical system.

Below are links related to Alberto:

Alberto Satellite View

Official Forecast Track Projection

Alberto Track Model Array

High pressure aloft and at the surface will ensure a continuation of the warm, sunny weather we are currently seeing. Since these patterns can be quite persistent, the question is how long will this spell last?

Based on current forecast trends, it appears that our placid May weather will continue at least a week. There may be a slight chance for thundershowers late Monday or Tuesday as an upper-level system tracks across the region, but the odds are that this rain will stay well north of Galveston County.

Looking even further down the road, we do not see much chance of rain until the following week (week of May 29-June 3) when an influx of deeper tropical moisture may occur. While some long-term models suggest possible development in the northwest Caribbean or Bay of Campeche down the road, strong wind shear is expected to continue over the Gulf of Mexico and I do not see this as much of a threat at this time. Generally the weather pattern is such that any changes to our current weather are likely to be fairly gradual.

So, given the warm, sunny weather, I think it is best just to take advantage of this interlude and use it as an opportunity to enjoy the outdoors before the real heat of summer sets in!

Below are a few links related to this blog:

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Surface Forecast Map in Seven Days

Long-term Tropical Hazards Map

Although the timing was a little off, last Friday and Saturday's rains certainly matched expectations. Official rainfall amounts over the period ranged from 7.62" at the National Weather Service Office in League City/Dickinson to 2.96" at Scholes Field in Galveston.

Cocorahs observers reported a high of 9.14" about a mile northwest of the National Weather Office in League City and 3.64" in the center of Galveston. Generally amounts were in excess of 7" through much of the northern part of the County.

The rain couldn't have come at a better time, as soil conditions were beginning to dry out noticeably over the region. The good news is that we may even receive more rain late Monday through early Wednesday as an upper-level system moves through Texas. The big question is whether moisture levels will return to high enough levels to support widespread rainfall.

Speaking of weather systems, some models are calling for a tropical system to develop in the western Caribbean Sea by the middle to later part of next week as a low pressure trough develops in the area. While this is a little early for tropical storm formation, May systems are not unheard of in the Tropical Atlantic Basin. This fits with my feeling that our season may get off to an early start in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (see blog: "Thinking about the rain and other matters"-April 4, 2012). Fortunately, upper-level winds to the north of the system, if it develops, will be quite unfavorable for much development. Nevertheless, this possibility should remind us to prepare for the coming hurricane season now.

Finally, we may soon see the first named storm in the eastern Pacific season as a low pressure center southwest of Mexico is given an 80% chance this morning of developing into a tropical cyclone.

Below are some links related to this blog:


Tuesday Precipitation Outlook

Tuesday Surface Forecast Map

Mid-week Surface Forecast Map

Wind Shear Outlook for the Tropics

As forecast, thunderstorms rumbled across Galveston County early this morning, accompanied by brilliant lightning and gusty winds. Rainfall amounts on the mainland ranged from 2.61" in the extreme northeast part of the County, to 1.56" in west League City and 0.71" in Friendswood. On the Island, precipitation totals ranged from 0.82" at Scholes Field west of 61st street to 0.95" in the central and eastern part of the city.

Although the squall line and thunderstorm cluster has moved east of the area and some dry air is flowing in aloft over the region, another round of storms seems likely this afternoon or evening as upper-level energy flows around the south side of the upper-low. Some rains could linger into Saturday, with partly cloudy skies likely for Sunday.

Overall, the rains were needed across the County after a relatively dry spell that extended from mid-April.

Below are some links related to today's blog:

Texas Radar Loop

Current Upper-level Map

12-hour Forecast Map

UPDATE: 4:00 pm Thursday: A Flash Flood Watch has been issued by the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service for Galveston County from 1 am Friday morning through Friday afternoon. The noon GFS model run called for a total of 4.09" of rain in Galveston between later today when the first rains move into the area until Saturday when they track off to the east.


A frontal boundary, a potent upper-level low now west of the Big Bend and a possible trough along the lower-Texas coast could bring heavy rains, and possibly even severe thunderstorms, to Galveston and southeast Texas from late Thursday into early Saturday.

Models differ somewhat on the track of the upper-level low as it heads east into Texas, so it is difficult pinpoint exactly what locations will be at most risk for excessive rain and/or severe storm activity. Nevertheless, the models are in fairly good agreement with the potential for substantial rainfall over large parts of south and southeast Texas as we end the week and move into the weekend.

As it is, after a brief respite from yesterday's rains, an increasingly unstable atmosphere will develop during the day tomorrow into Friday. The latest GFS model run (at noon) suggests that Galveston Island could receive 3.58" of rain from sometime on Friday into early Saturday.

Given the expected scenario, I would not be totally surprised to see the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service Office issue flood or severe weather watches by sometime on Thursday for much, if not all, of the greater Houston-Galveston area. In other words, take advantage of the break in the weather today, if you have any outdoor plans, because conditions will become increasingly unfavorable for them over the coming 72-hours!

Below are some links related to this blog:

Current Upper-level Map

Friday Precipitation Outlook

Saturday Precipitation Outlook

Storm Prediction Center Outlook

Current Texas Radar Loop

Galveston County has now gone 16 consecutive days without measurable rainfall. While that may not be much of a problem during the winter, it becomes increasingly problematic as we move into time of year when heat and long hours of sunlight lead to increased evaporation rates and drier soil conditons. Certainly, we do not want to see a repeat of last summer when only 2.54" of rain was recorded in Galveston during the 123 days between May 1 and August 31 (El Paso's normal rainfall for that same period is 3.91").

During much of this dry spell, an upper-level high pressure system and a strong cap (layer of warm air at the intermediate levels of the atmosphere) have kept rain well away from the upper-Texas coast. Fortunately, there are signs that we will be reverting back to a wetter pattern.

First. a Pacific cool front will push southeast through Texas during the middle of this week, reaching the upper-Texas coast on Wednesday. There will be a chance of showers or thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Next, a deep trough and upper-level low will move east across Texas from late Thursday to Saturday. This will create an unstable atmosphere and set the stage for additional thunderstorm activity on Friday and possibly Saturday. The latest models suggest anywhere from 1-3" of rain with this system, with the heaviest rains being close to the coast. Finally, the longer-term forecasts are calling for additional rains later next week.

If all this pans out, then we may move into the later part of May with fairly good soil moisture. At any rate, it will definitely be good if we can avoid duplicating last year's drought.

Below are some links related to this article:

Mid-week surface weather map

Mid-week rainfall outlook

Late week rainfall outlook

Upper-level forecast map for later this week

6-10 day precipitation outlook