Although I knew that January, 2012 was milder than normal, it still surprised me to learn that this past month was the 8th mildest January ever in Galveston, with records going back to January, 1872. In fact, it was the warmest January on the Island since January, 1952.

January temperatures followed this pattern on the mainland as well where the 58.4 degree average for the month was 5.8 degrees above established norms at the National Weather Service Office in League City/Dickinson. This compared to a 61.1 degree monthly average at Scholes Field in Galveston, which was 5.9 degrees above normal.

The lowest temperature for the month in Galveston was only 38 degrees and the highest was 75. In League City, the lowest was 28 degrees and the highest was 78.

Precipitation for the month was below normal in Galveston, though it could hardly be considered a "dry" month with 3.01" recorded (1.19" less than normal). League City received 6.33", though it must be noted that 5.18" of that total fell on one day.

Looking ahead, the intermediate-term forecasts are suggesting cooler and wetter weather than normal through mid-February. While this is good news for those hoping to avoid a repeat of last year's late winter drought (with only 0.67" measured in February), it may cause some complications for the upcoming Mardi Gras festivities. Current forecasts suggest rain for this weekend, and at least one model is calling for fairly decent amounts of rain for the first Friday of Mardi Gras....when, perhaps appropriately, another umbrella parade is scheduled in Galveston.

Of course, that is looking fairly far ahead and stands a good chance of being revised as that date comes nearer. We shall see!

Below are links associated with this topic:

Weekend Precipitation Outlook

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook

SECOND UPDATE: 7:20 am (1/31/12): As I suspected when I posted the first update yesterday, the GFS model has backed off of its forecast yesterday of a major Arctic outbreak in 10 days and now shows no hint of really frigid air making its way this far south.

PRIOR BLOG: Last winter brought hard freezes to much of the County and 9 mornings with freezing temperatures even to Galveston Island. By contrast, Galveston Island has yet to receive a freezing temperature this winter and, even on the mainland, freezes have been modest and relatively scarce.

However, while Europe and much of the United States have enjoyed a much milder than normal winter, Alaska has been suffering through its coldest winter in quite a few years. This past week brought temperatures as low as -60 degrees to parts of Alaska, giving much of central and western Alaska its coldest final week of January since 1989.

Given the mild conditions so far, the question is if and when this really frigid Arctic air will make it way this far south. In 1989, the cold air trapped in Alaska finally made its way to Texas, fostering a massive ice storm during the first week of Mardi Gras in Galveston and bringing the second coldest March temperature ever to the area.

So far, the extended forecasts, are not suggesting a repeat this year. Although a cold front will bring seasonably chilly weather to the area by this weekend and longer term forecasts are suggesting minimum temperatures in the 30's for the Island and upper-20's for the mainland by the second week of February, there is no hint that the really frigid air will pour into Texas anytime soon. Instead, near normal temperatures are expected through at least mid-February.

In the short-run, an upper-level disturbance may bring some rain to Galveston County tomorrow and there may be another chance for some precipitation again on Friday and Saturday when a couple of cold fronts push through the area. If this pans out, it will be good, because February is often the start of our fairly frequent spring dry spells.

Otherwise, I for one, am content to see the really cold air stay out of our area and hope that this can continue through March.

Below are some links to weather outlooks associated with this blog:

Day 2 Rainfall Outlook

Day 4-5 Precipitation Outlook

Current Alaska Temperatures

6-10 Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook












http://www.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=ASAK48PAFC&type=public

Our weather will settle down considerably over the next few days as a storm system moves out of the state and high pressure settles in. While we may see some clouds today on the back side of the upper-level low, cooler and drier air will dominate our weather picture through the weekend. This will be aided by another Pacific cool front due to push through the state on Saturday.

Although, Galveston County received fairly decent amounts of rain as the storms moved through yesterday, they were generally less than expected by the models. On Galveston Island, rainfall amounts ranged from 0.53" at Scholes Field west of 61st Street, to 0.55" in mid-town and 0.69" on the East End. On the mainland, rainfall amounts ranged from 0.67" near League City to 0.93" in the far northern part of the County. Heavier rains were generally confined to areas north and east of Harris County, though parts of Harris County received a couple of inches of rain.

Extended forecast models are keeping rain prospects over the next week or so fairly low, so it looks like locals will have a good opportunity to begin working on their early spring gardens.

Below is a link to an accumulated rainfall map for southeast Texas and the 6-10 weather outlook:

24-hour accumulated rainfall

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

UPDATE: 11:30 am-The local NWS Office has issued a Special Marine Warning and Small Craft Advisory for the off-shore and Bay waters in Galveston County. An approaching squall line is producing winds in excess of 34-knots and should move into the Galveston area within the next hour or so.

A storm system moving slowly across Texas ahead of an advancing cold front has prompted the issuance of various watches and warnings over much of the state this morning.

Already, Flash Flood Warnings have been issued for parts of Central Texas and a Tornado Warning has been issued for areas just east of Bryan/College Station. A large area of thunderstorms was located over North Texas this morning and a line of intense storms was approaching Southeast Texas from the west. The storms are being enhanced by a large upper-level low and surface lows along the front over southwest Texas and northern Mexico.

In addition to a slight possibility of tornadoes, gusty, severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be possible as the storms move through Galveston County.

Fortunately, the system should move out of the area later today and we should see improving conditions tomorrow as cooler, drier air moves into the area.

Below are links to sites with additional information on this developing weather situation:

Tornado Watch Area

Radar Loop

Upper-level Map

Surface Map

Today's Rainfall Outlook

A complex storm system promises to bring the heaviest rains to Galveston County since a similar system brought more than 2 inches to the area on January 9.

An upper-level low is expected to move out of New Mexico into west Texas and then eastward on Wednesday. At the same time, a surface low should develop over Texas while southerly winds bring deeper levels of low level moisture back to southeast Texas. With divergent winds aloft creating an increasingly unstable atmosphere, the stage is set for moderate to heavy rain from late on Tuesday through Thursday morning.

Though the timing on all of this is still uncertain and there are some factors that could decrease overall rainfall amounts, the overall picture seems very promising as we head for the end of the month.

One to two inches of rain are generally projected for the County with this event. With 2.25 inches recorded so far this month at the official observation site at Scholes Field, this may bring enough rain to give us our second consecutive month with at or above normal rainfall (December, 2011 received 4.41 inches of rain, which was 0.89" more than would be expected for that month).

Although drought conditions have receded considerably due to a relatively wet late autumn and early winter, it would not take much of spring dry spell to put us back in a fairly parched situation. And, with long-term forecast still suggesting a quite dry spring, I am hoping that we can benefit from this wetter period while we can!

Below are some links to forecasts and outlooks related to this blog:

Today's Rainfall Outlook

Radar Loop

Upper-level Map

Surface Map

February through April Weather Outlook

Fog is likely to make a return to the coastal sections of the County tomorrow and on Saturday as warm, moist air flows in from the south over cool, Gulf waters near shore.

This return of milder conditions will also herald a gradual pattern change that may bring decent rains back to the County late next week into the early part of the following week. Currently, the U.S. largely under a zonal type pattern with westerly winds aloft prevalent over much the country, despite a weak low pressure trough over the East. This is expected to gradually change back to a pattern with a deeper trough developing over the West. If this happens, then rainfall prospects will improve for our area.

The last few GFS model runs have been particularly suggestive of this trend with the latest model showing rather substantial rainfall over Galveston County five to eight days from now. This is reflected to a lesser degree in the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook, which suggests near normal rainfall during that time span.

Meanwhile, the really cold air remains up in the Pacific Northwest, western Canada and Alaska. Most models keep it there for the foreseeable future, meaning our basically mild weather will continue with only brief outbreaks of chilly, but not frigid air.

Since the months of February, March and April are often characterized by relatively low rainfall totals in Galveston County, I personally would not mind a return to a wetter pattern before we enter into spring.....though...of course, I hope it remains dry for Mardi Gras!

Below are some links to the longer-term weather outlook:

Upper-level Forecast Map for Late Next Week

Precipitation Probability Forecast For Late Next Week

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

Bill Read's public announcement that he will retire as head of the National Hurricane Center as of June 1 evoked many reactions on my part even though I knew that it was forthcoming.

On the one hand, I am happy for him. It is well a deserved change for the former Navy veteran and Aggie, who served as head of the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service Office from 1992 to 2007. Despite moving to Miami to take the Hurricane Center position, Read maintained his residence, social and professional contacts in this area and appeared on several occasions as speaker with the local AMS chapter and hurricane awareness events.

On the other hand, we were very fortunate to have someone at the Hurricane Center with such an intimate knowledge of the Galveston and Houston area. He possessed deep insight into the unique challenges faced by residents and leaders of our region and kept a close working relationship with all of those involved in hurricane emergency planning. I know that many of us in this area will miss this personal touch during hurricane season.

If I could sum up my feelings, it is that we have lost a very valuable resource at the Hurricane Center, but have gained a neighbor.

Personally, I have had the privilege to meet and talk with Bill on numerous professional and social occasions. I found him to be modest, personable and always aware of the responsibility he had to communicate effectively and accurately to the public and decision makers whenever tropical systems threatened. In addition, he never hesitated to answer any questions that I or others might have regarding tropical meteorology and forecasts.

I know that Bill Read has a number of options available when he returns to the Houston-Galveston area and that he will continue to be active with local forecasters, emergency planners, and weather reporters. In whatever role he takes in retirement, I want to thank him for a job well done and wish him the best for the coming years.