Thunderstorms in advance of an approaching cold front were booming across Galveston County this morning. With the front moving slowly and storms tracking parallel to the coast, it should take awhile for this activity to clear out of the area.

In addition, an upper-level low and trough to our west will keep clouds and rain in our picture tomorrow, along with much cooler weather, as weak upper-level disturbances travel northeast across the area.

The long-term picture is a little more muddled however. While this is much agreement that the next couple of weeks will be cooler than what we have seen lately, there is some differences among the models on how wet the next 14-days or so will be.

With two Mardi Gras weekends approaching, how this plays out will concern a lot of people. The GFS model, for example, was predicting a wet weekend for February 11-12. Now is is leaning towards a rain free scenario, though it still anticipates some light rain early the following week. A lot will depend on the upper-level pattern down the road. If the upper-level trough hangs back our west, then a wet pattern seems likely.

Since forecasts more than a week ahead tend to be somewhat speculative, we may just have to wait a few days before we can get an accurate read on next weekend.

For me, I am one of those who are torn about what I want. On the one hand, I am delighted with the rain we have been getting and would like to avoid one of our frequent late winter/early spring droughts. On the other hand, I hope to participate in some Mardi Gras activities and do not particularly wish to get drenched.

We shall see!

Below are links to the current and upcoming weather outlooks:

Texas Radar Loop

24-hour Rainfall Outlook

Upper-level Forecast for Next Week

6-10 Day Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook