SECOND UPDATE: 7:20 am (1/31/12): As I suspected when I posted the first update yesterday, the GFS model has backed off of its forecast yesterday of a major Arctic outbreak in 10 days and now shows no hint of really frigid air making its way this far south.

PRIOR BLOG: Last winter brought hard freezes to much of the County and 9 mornings with freezing temperatures even to Galveston Island. By contrast, Galveston Island has yet to receive a freezing temperature this winter and, even on the mainland, freezes have been modest and relatively scarce.

However, while Europe and much of the United States have enjoyed a much milder than normal winter, Alaska has been suffering through its coldest winter in quite a few years. This past week brought temperatures as low as -60 degrees to parts of Alaska, giving much of central and western Alaska its coldest final week of January since 1989.

Given the mild conditions so far, the question is if and when this really frigid Arctic air will make it way this far south. In 1989, the cold air trapped in Alaska finally made its way to Texas, fostering a massive ice storm during the first week of Mardi Gras in Galveston and bringing the second coldest March temperature ever to the area.

So far, the extended forecasts, are not suggesting a repeat this year. Although a cold front will bring seasonably chilly weather to the area by this weekend and longer term forecasts are suggesting minimum temperatures in the 30's for the Island and upper-20's for the mainland by the second week of February, there is no hint that the really frigid air will pour into Texas anytime soon. Instead, near normal temperatures are expected through at least mid-February.

In the short-run, an upper-level disturbance may bring some rain to Galveston County tomorrow and there may be another chance for some precipitation again on Friday and Saturday when a couple of cold fronts push through the area. If this pans out, it will be good, because February is often the start of our fairly frequent spring dry spells.

Otherwise, I for one, am content to see the really cold air stay out of our area and hope that this can continue through March.

Below are some links to weather outlooks associated with this blog:

Day 2 Rainfall Outlook

Day 4-5 Precipitation Outlook

Current Alaska Temperatures

6-10 Weather Outlook

8-14 Day Weather Outlook












http://www.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=ASAK48PAFC&type=public