A complex storm system promises to bring the heaviest rains to Galveston County since a similar system brought more than 2 inches to the area on January 9.

An upper-level low is expected to move out of New Mexico into west Texas and then eastward on Wednesday. At the same time, a surface low should develop over Texas while southerly winds bring deeper levels of low level moisture back to southeast Texas. With divergent winds aloft creating an increasingly unstable atmosphere, the stage is set for moderate to heavy rain from late on Tuesday through Thursday morning.

Though the timing on all of this is still uncertain and there are some factors that could decrease overall rainfall amounts, the overall picture seems very promising as we head for the end of the month.

One to two inches of rain are generally projected for the County with this event. With 2.25 inches recorded so far this month at the official observation site at Scholes Field, this may bring enough rain to give us our second consecutive month with at or above normal rainfall (December, 2011 received 4.41 inches of rain, which was 0.89" more than would be expected for that month).

Although drought conditions have receded considerably due to a relatively wet late autumn and early winter, it would not take much of spring dry spell to put us back in a fairly parched situation. And, with long-term forecast still suggesting a quite dry spring, I am hoping that we can benefit from this wetter period while we can!

Below are some links to forecasts and outlooks related to this blog:

Today's Rainfall Outlook

Radar Loop

Upper-level Map

Surface Map

February through April Weather Outlook