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By
Joshua Buckley
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Comments (12)
This time of year, I always get the same questions What does my team have to do to get into the playoffs?
Well, Im beating every one to the punch this year. After creating a handy point differential chart and going over every scenario possible, Ive broken down the District 24-5A and 24-4A races as best I can.
If you have any further questions, post them below and Ill do my best to answer them.
District 24-5A
Current standings
x-Clear Springs 5-1
x-Brazoswood 4-2
Ball High 4-2
Dickinson 4-2
Clear Creek 3-3
Clear Brook 2-4
Clear Lake 1-5
Alvin 1-5
x-clinched playoff berth
Springs and Brazoswood both clinched playoff spots with victories this week. After that, Creeks loss to Alvin made the playoff picture a lot clearer for the final two spots.
Here are the important 24-5A match-ups this week.
Thursday
Springs at Dickinson
Friday
Ball at Brazoswood
Creek vs. Lake
It is possible for Creek, Dickinson and Ball/Brazoswood to all finish tied at 4-3 in the standings.
Keep in mind though, with a three-way tie-breaker, if a team has beaten the other two squads it is tied with, then it advances to the playoffs. After a three-way tie is broken, the final tie would then be broken based on head-to-head results.
Brazoswood has beaten Creek and Dickinson, meaning if it lost to Ball next week, it would still win any tiebreaker. Thus, the Bucs are already in the playoffs.
Creek has beaten Dickinson and Ball, so if the Wildcats are in a three-way tie with them, they advance to the postseason.
Here are the exact scenarios for the three teams competing for the final two spots.
Ball clinches with a win OR a Creek loss
Creek clinches with a win AND a Ball or Dickinson loss
Dickinson clinches with a win OR a Creek loss OR a Ball loss
An interesting tidbit should Dickinson and Ball claim get the final two spots, then Ball would go in the Class 5A, Division I (big school) bracket. Thats right, a school with 4A enrollment would have to play in the biggest division bracket in the state.
The reason is because, when the realignment occurred in 2008, Ball had the sixth lowest enrollment in the district. Springs and Dickinson were ranked seventh and eighth.
Only in Texas high school football.
Now on to 24-4A
District 24-4A
Current standings
y-Angleton 6-0
x-Friendswood 4-2
x-Dawson 4-2
Santa Fe 3-3
Texas City 2-4
La Marque 2-4
Manvel 2-4
Brazosport 1-5
y-clinched district title
x-clinched playoff berth
For the second straight year, it appears that no one wants the final playoff spot from this district. Its also starting to look as though a 3-4 district record will once again get a team in the playoffs.
Before going over the scenarios, here is the week 10 schedule:
Manvel at Angleton
Brazosport at Texas City
Dawson at Santa Fe
La Marque at Friendswood
Santa Fe holds the advantage in this district and will get that last playoff spot should it win. Easy enough.
Now for the confusing part. Should Santa Fe lose, it sets up numerous different scenarios for that final spot.
In three- or four-way ties, if one team hasnt beaten the others involved, then it comes down to point differential. Theres a maximum cap of 18 points and a minimum of -18 points when combining the point differential from each game of the participating teams.
Without confusing everyone further, here are the scenarios and which team would get in for each. Remember, each scenario assumes that Santa Fe loses, and the winning teams tie the Indians at 3-4 in the standings. Point differential number is in parenthesis.
La Marque, Texas City and Manvel win Manvel clinches (+8)
La Marque and Manvel win, Texas City loses Manvel clinches (+12)
La Marque and Texas City win, Manvel loses La Marque clinches (+5)
La Marque wins, Texas City and Manvel lose La Marque clinches (head-to-head over SF)
Texas City wins, La Marque and Manvel lose Santa Fe clinches (h2h over TC)
Manvel wins, La Marque and Texas City lose Manvel clinches (h2h over SF)
That leaves one more scenario:
Texas City and Manvel win, La Marque loses
Heres the problem with the point differential with that scenario, all of the teams would even out. Manvel beat Santa Fe by four, Santa Fe beat Texas City by four, and Texas City beat Manvel by four.
So what is the next tiebreaker? I have to find that out, but it could possibly come down to a coin flip. Yes, a coin flip, ala Friday Night Lights fame. When I find out for sure, Ill pass along that info.
Buckleys predictions
So how do I see this shaking down? Well dont be shocked to see a four-win Ball High home get left at home, while a three-win Santa Fe team sneaks into the playoffs.
District 24-5A
Springs 6-1 (Division II, top seed)
Brazoswood 5-2 (DI, top seed)
Creek 4-3 (DI, bottom seed)
Dickinson 4-3 (DII, bottom seed)
Ball 4-3
Brook 3-4
Lake 1-6
Alvin 1-6
District 24-4A
Angleton 8-0 (DII, top seed)
Friendswood 5-2 (DI, top seed)
Dawson 5-2 (DI, bottom seed)
Santa Fe 3-4 (DII, bottom seed)
Texas City 3-4
Manvel 2-5
La Marque 2-5
Brazosport 1-6
What are your predictions heading into the final week of the regular season?
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Is it not time for a La Marque coaching change,after all the former coach at least went to the playoffs and had a winning season in 1 year.
— By Merritt Lockwood
on Oct. 31 at 8:37 AM
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I know this WAS the Galveston Daily News, but I am kind of tired of sorting through a million stories about the Tors to find a paragraph about my Galveston COUNTY school! I wish there had been a nice article about the accomplishments of Springs in only their second year of district play along with pictures! They are the only 24 5A team to clich a playoff spot!(a paragraph I could have found on your website for free wasn't good enough) I am a subscriber, and I do enjoy reading your paper, but I think it might be nice to highlight each school with an editorial instead of endless tributes to one!
— By Denise Parsons
on Oct. 31 at 9:15 AM
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Josh, this is very nice how you walk us through the multiple scenarios of potential playoff possibilities (say that three times fast). The clear solution is for the Fe to win at home against Dawson. That will keep many of folk from doing long division and other things that could cause mental disorder. BTW, remember, starting at 2:00 PM Friday, there will be a large turnout for our final Tailgate party
lots of briskets, shrimp, fish, seafood gumbo, sausage, and other delicious entrees. Come on out, and bring some friends. It sets up for a very promising night that will bring the Fes only 3rd playoff in school history. GO INDIANS!!!
— By Keith Gray
on Oct. 31 at 9:41 AM
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Josh, so what you're telling me is Clear Creek is gonna have to play Hightower yet again?! What did Darrell Warden do to deserve this?
Denise Parsons, you need to get a clue. The GCDN covers every school equally. Truth is, Ball High having a chance to make the playoffs is a bigger story than Clear Springs winning a district title. Everybody knows Springs got the benefit of the school zone with the most football players right now. Let's see if Springs keeps up all this winning for the long term or if it returns to normalcy like every other high school program not named Katy.
Keith, I don't live in Galveston County, but I may have to visit Santa Fe Friday afternoon.
— By Kip
on Oct. 31 at 11:51 AM
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Merritt, you people in La Marque are morons. Boo freakin' Hoo...we haven't had a winning season in two years. Woe is us.
You are not preordained as some great program that shouldn't have to go through bad times every now and then. Give the coach a chance. Maybe if the school district wasn't crap for academics more kids would want to stay and play there rather than going to Ball High or Texas City.
— By Kip
on Oct. 31 at 11:54 AM
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@Keith - I'll be sure to swing by!
— By Joshua Buckley
on Oct. 31 at 12:09 PM
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@Denise - We only have two people in our sports department, myself and Evan Mohl. We also have only two photographers. We have nine public schools in Galveston County. So obviously, with that math, we can't be everywhere.
When making decisions on coverage, we always give priority to games with two county teams. In this case it was Dickinson at Ball High.
We also decided to cover Hitchcock, since we had only covered them once this season. We have been at five Springs games this season and are going to be at the game Thursday night. Last night was the sixth Ball High game we have covered.
So if there have been a million Ball High articles, then Springs' total must be in the hundred thousands.
And before you call me biased, maybe you should look around at some of the high school football message boards, where I have been boldly predicting Springs to make it to the regional championship...
— By Joshua Buckley
on Oct. 31 at 12:13 PM
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Josh, glad to hear you will come by... bring TJ and whoever and come hungry... Kip... all are welcome... I think I gonna make a caso that will instantly give you the gift of "speaking spanish"...
And as far as Darrell Warden... I hear he's a fine coach... and when we played ball at SFA, he was also a fine linebacker... we'll grab a few SF coaches and play in their golf tournament again this year... hope to see you at the tailgate...
— By Keith Gray
on Oct. 31 at 12:35 PM
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Josh,
Perhaps you could get guest columns from the area school Journalism kids. Would give them great experience and would give a different perspective on the readings.
— By Lorri Pennington
on Nov. 1 at 9:32 AM
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Why was the Clear Springs at Dickinson game moved to Thursday? I understand the unfortunate need for Thursday night lights in CCISD where four schools share a stadium, but Dickinson has their own stadium.
— By Mark Keehn
on Nov. 2 at 10:50 AM
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Denise Parsons- I too am a huge Clear Springs fan as stated in a comment on on the playoff mess article that Joshua Buckley wrote about the playoff tie breakers i was very interested in and he commented and broke it down perfectly. I give credit when credit is do he is a great columnist he has leaned towards Springs a lot in his predictions. With that being said the biased side of me would also like more stories about Clear Springs but i also understand the situation with other schools. And also the fact is that right now Springs isn't the sole possession holder of 24-5A yet they win the crown after defeating Dickinson on Thursday night in which time i believe we will see an article on Clear Springs and all of its accomplishments this season.
— By R.J.
on Nov. 2 at 1:22 PM
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Joshua - good breakdown on playoff scenario. With respect to the comments on the focus of the paper, I would somewhat agree with the opinion that there is a bias toward reporting on Ball. Don't dismiss it so easily, perception is reality.
Kip - I disagree with all your points....Darrell Warden has underperformed every year with the talent he has at Creek. Springs did not get an over-abundance of talent. They got an over-abundance of great coaching with some good talent. As long as the coaching staffs stay the same, the smart money will be on Springs. Creek will again back into the playoffs only because they take half the district every year. Maybe getting spanked by Alvin should clue you in on how good Creek is.........
— By 24-5A Fan
on Nov. 3 at 8:35 AM
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