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By
Joshua Buckley
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Comments (8)
Its not uncommon for district races to be wide open in high school football with two weeks remaining in the regular season. But it would probably be easier to figure out a new national health care plan than it would be to predict how the playoff race will shake out in Districts 24-5A and 24-4A at this point.
While Friday night offered a fairly predictable set of results, it didnt really do much to clear up the playoff picture. In fact, both district races appear at the moment to be a complete mess.
So with two weeks to go, Ill do my best to sort it out and give my predictions.
District 24-5A
Current standings
1T. Ball High 4-1
1T. Clear Springs 4-1
3T. Brazoswood 3-2
3T. Clear Creek 3-2
3T. Dickinson 3-2
6. Clear Brook 2-3
7. Clear Lake 1-4
8. Alvin 0-5
Normally four wins in this district is a lock to get you into the playoffs. Not the case this year, though. In fact, there is a possibility there could be a five-way tie for first place heading into the final week of the season.
Sound crazy? Its really not. Here is what would have to happen next week:
Brazoswood wins at Lake on Thursday (likely)
Creek wins at Alvin on Friday (likely)
Dickinson wins at Ball on Friday (possible)
Springs loses to Brook (possible, but not likely)
In that scenario, all five of the top teams would be 4-2. Im sure I could figure out the playoff scenarios from there, but frankly I dont want to try unless I absolutely have to. I just know it would set up a wild final week.
Of course, there is a scenario in which all four playoff spots could be clinched next week Brazoswood, Creek, Ball and Springs all win and eliminate Dickinson. In that case, the final week would only have playoff seeding at stake.
I actually think the second scenario is more likely to occur next week than the first one. But then again, you never know thats what makes high school football so fun.
District 24-4A
Current standings
1. Angleton 5-0
2T. Santa Fe 3-2
2T. Friendswood 3-2
2T. Dawson 3-2
5T. Texas City 2-3
5T. La Marque 2-3
7T. Brazosport 1-4
7T. Manvel 1-4
At least this district already has one spot taken care with Angleton. That makes it a little less of a cluster than 24-5A.
However, after Angleton, there is a big mass of teams fighting for three spots. And its doubtful that the situation will be any clearer after next week.
Here are the games slated for next week:
Santa Fe at Angleton
Friendswood at Brazosport
Texas City at Dawson
Manvel at La Marque
Like 24-5A, there are scenarios in which a four-win team could miss the playoffs. But I think the possibility of that happening is very unlikely. What isnt so far-fetched is having five teams tied at 3-3 in district play heading into the last week.
Texas City and La Marque are really the keys at this point. If both lose Friday, then three of the four spots will be wrapped up. If Texas City and La Marque both win, then the district point-system tiebreaker is going to come into effect again. Ugh
Buckleys predictions
With all that in mind, here are my predictions for what the final standings in these two districts will look like come Nov. 7.
District 24-5A
1. Springs 6-1 (Division II, top seed)
2. Brazoswood 5-2 (DI, top seed)
3. Creek 5-2 (DI, bottom seed)
4. Ball 5-2 (DII, bottom seed)
5. Dickinson 3-4
6. Brook 3-4
7. Lake 1-6
8. Alvin 0-7
District 24-4A
1. Angleton 8-0 (DII, top seed)
2. Friendswood 5-2 (DI, top seed)
3. Santa Fe 4-3 (DII, bottom seed)
4. Dawson 4-3 (DI, bottom seed)
5. Texas City 3-4
6. Manvel 2-5
7. La Marque 2-5
8. Brazosport 1-6
What do you think? Do my predictions, or am I way off? I want to hear your predicted standings with two weeks to go.
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Excuse me if my comment is a bit biased towards my team I am a huge Clear Springs Chargers fan and I believe they will end up on top or in second the reason i say second is because i do not know how the tie breaker goes? If Ball high wins their last two games (even though Brazoswood is tough at home and haven't lost all season at home thus far) and so does Springs how does the tiebreaker go is it on head to head match up or does it go to overall record? as long as the weather stays the way it is i believe Clear Springs assault in the air attack game will continue to strive. Having said that not to make excuses but being at the game vs Ball High the only reason that game was lost due to lack of a running game when your team is a passing team and it is raining and the wind is blowing 5-10 mph i believe that would be a cause for concern. Thank You for allowing me this opportunity gentlemen and i hope to hear a response from you. GO CLEAR SPRINGS!!!!!
— By R.J.
on Oct. 24 at 4:45 AM
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He shows Springs winning the district, what is your question? I think Santa Fe loses their next two games. Very very tough games for them, Dawson and LM - FW will have to battle hard to win its next two, but I will say that happens!! Santa Fe will end up 3-4 tied with Texas City - so they will make it!
— By Rus Rhodes
on Oct. 24 at 11:11 AM
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Hello Mr. Rhodes I do see that he has Springs winning the district but like i said if Ball High wins their next 2 games also its still tied up assuming Springs wins their next 2 games also. So my question was how does the tiebreaker work?
— By R.J.
on Oct. 24 at 2:14 PM
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Got it! I thought you were mad at him for not picking Springs!!
— By Rus Rhodes
on Oct. 26 at 6:47 AM
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If Ball and Springs win out, Ball would win the district(head to head).
— By Sports Guru
on Oct. 26 at 2:40 PM
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Just a hunch, but I feel like Texas City beats Dawson Friday, and an LM win over FW and Dawson win over SF in the last weekend of the season creates a four way tie between TC, FW, LM, and Dawson for the final 3 playoff spots in 24-4A.
Any idea how that tiebreaker would work out, Josh?
— By Jay
on Oct. 26 at 5:20 PM
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OK, here's some answers to tie-breaking questions you all have.
In 24-5A, if it comes down between Springs and Ball High, then Ball would finish as the higher seed due to the head-to-head win. I'm not sure what the multiple team tie-breaker is in that district. I'll ask around on Tuesday.
In 24-4A, in the event of a multiple team tie-breaker, if a team hasn't beaten all the others involved, it is sorted out by a points system.
Theres a maximum cap of 18 points and a minimum of -18 points when combining the point differential from each game of the participating teams.
After this week's games, we'll have all the results involving TC, FW, LM and Dawson. I'll post the tiebreakers over the weekend at that point.
— By Joshua Buckley
on Oct. 26 at 8:37 PM
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Thank You very much Josh for the clarification. Not exactly what i wanted to hear but it is the truth! Hopefully for Clear Springs sake Ball High loses one of their last two games and Clear Springs wins their next two! LETS GO CHARGERS!!!!
— By R.J.
on Oct. 27 at 5:39 AM
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