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By
Stan Blazyk
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Comments (4)
There is no doubt that Hurricane Ike will take its place near the top of the list of tropical villains that have pummeled the Island and the County over the years. I'm sure that future conversations will include the ordeals and traumas brought on by this monster storm, edging out the long-running reminiscences about Hurricanes Alicia and Carla, as well as references to the 1900 and 1915 storms.
The good news, if there is any to be had at this point, is that tropical events of the magnitude of Ike are quite rare on the upper-Texas coast. The bad news is that they are, and will continue to be, inevitable.
Looking at the best data we have available from Pleasure Pier, Galveston had a tidal surge of 11.19 feet (above the mean low level water mark) and 12.64 foot tide during normal high tide. This makes it the second or third highest tide ever measured on the Island.
The highest tide ever recorded in Galveston was 15.2 feet during the 1900 Storm (officially reported by Isaac Cline...however, he also estimated that the tide could have reached as high as 20 feet on part of the Island). The second highest tide belongs either to Ike or to the 1915 Hurricane. The tide during the 1915 storm was officially reported at 12.1 feet, however, it is not clear whether that was above the average low level water mark or not.
Other high tides of note are: a 10-foot tide during the hurricane of July 21, 1909, 9.3 feet during Hurricane Carla in 1983, tides of 7-8 feet during the hurricanes in 1875 and 1886 and tides in the 7 to 8 foot range during Hurricane Alicia in 1983 and 1934.
Looking at the data for the past 158 years, Galveston has experienced 4 tides of 10 feet or more (one about every 40 years) and six in excess of 7 feet (one about every 25 years, or one in about every 16 years counting both all tides over 7 feet).
If we focus only on those tides that bring catastrophic damage to the Island and County (which I would limit to those tides of 10 feet or more), there may be some comfort in knowing that they tend to be quite rare. However we interpret this data, there is one thing I am very sure of, and that it Galveston fared much better with the seawall than she would have without it.
I salute those to the wisdom and tenacity to build it.
Finally, I wish to thank the Days Inn in Rockport for allowing me to use their internet access though I am not a registered guest.
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I have often thought that for Galvestonians, Issac's Storm should be required reading for all residents (a wonderful book describing the host of mistakes and human arrogance that lead to the 1900 hurricane disaster--still America's worst loss of life--over 8000+). Barrier islands are intrinsically bad places to build while being wonderful places to live.
As I watched the storm progress and learned that some 40% of residents chose to stay put, I was certain the fatalities would reach into the hundreds. They were, without any question, lucky to survive! Although Ike remained a Category 2 storm, it seemed to me to be the biggest, widest Category 2 ever recorded. I would love to have some savvy meterologists comment on this monster storm, said to be 335 miles in diameter! Simple physics would indicate catastophic damage!
If we equate the gulf to a shallow plate of water with a very gradual slope to the shoreline, many hurricane's diameters would be fist sized. Ike was the size of the Shaq's monster mitt--3/4s the size of the plate and, as we saw, this enormous diameter moved water inland in biblical proportions!
Read Issac's Storm to get a clear picture of vulnerability. Try not to cry when reading some of the more heart-wrenching passages. For those BOI residents, if you can't read, have a friend read it to you. Perhaps the time is ripe to consider amending building codes for all barrier islands and similarly vulnerable coastal communities. How much is your insurance policy costing nowadays? Our entire country is amazed at the tenacity and stubborness of the Texas mindset to tough it out. It is time for Glenn Cambell to compose a new song for the Galveston area with some reality lyrics. I could recommend a few lines myself.
— By Austin Melonius
on Sep. 18 at 1:19 PM
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Austin,
I have long believed that the codes need to be toughened, to at least to Dade County, Florida standards. I know that some oppose it because of the costs, but it has been proven that it actually saves money in the long-run.
The seawall does work, but it won't protect from tide water encroaching from the Bay. While the historic structures downtown can't be changed too much due to their size and function, certainly housing could be made less vulnerable to tides and winds with adequate codes and rebuilding regulations.
Still, Galveston is a unique community and very much loved by many who live here. We'll do what we need to do to rebuild our city.
— By Stan Blazyk
on Sep. 19 at 12:09 PM
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The important statistic is mortality per 1000 people. I heard estimates of up to 20,000 people being on Galveston Island during Ike. Of those, three drowned. Three others died when required electricity (due to health problems) failed.
Possibly that will rise some, but I cannot see it cracking 100. (Probably 25 max.) That means that despite truly dreadful conditions your odds against getting killed were around 1:1000.
That is a high death rate viewed from an actuarial standpoint, but as a one-time event, it is pretty low. There were as many people or more killed due to Ike over all the rest of Texas (although that is spread over a bigger base population).
It is pretty clear if you are in a multi-story brick or reinforced concrete building not immediately adjacent to the Gulf or ocean that you will survive the hurricane. Aftermath might make you wish you hadn't, if you stay, but you will probably be around to make that wish.
— By Emma Nalias
on Sep. 19 at 4:04 PM
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Emma,
I agree with you in your overall assessment. I have often said I would rather be in Galveston in a strong structure than in Huntsville. Most hurricane deaths in Texas over the past 30 years have occurred inland due chiefly to flooding and falling trees, etc.
But the anticipated storm surge with Ike, which, fortunately did not materialize, but was bad enough made staying unwise. If we had the 16-18 foot surge originally projected, many of those who stayed would have been in serious trouble Therefore, I strongly advocated evacuation in this case.
I think the response to each hurricane has to be based upon the specific characteristics of each storm.
— By Stan Blazyk
on Sep. 20 at 9:07 AM
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